WinForge methodology
HOW WINFORGE
READS THE GAME
WinForge turns NFL data into player projections you can inspect: 30 specialized ML models, Monte Carlo simulation, and edge math for the same stat markets the books post.
THE SHORT VERSION
We train machine-learning models on historical NFL performance, simulate each player week thousands of times, and compare those projections to the betting market to find where the line looks off.
HOW ACCURATE ARE WE? (THE HONEST VERSION)
Blind test of 2025 (data not trained on), measured as average miss in the stat's units. WinForge was roughly 2× more accurate than FantasyPros & DraftKings on yardage; WR receiving yards missed by about 11 versus about 24 for the book.
That means our projections were closer to reality on average. It does not mean every pick wins or that betting WinForge guarantees profit. Football is variance. These are 2025 out-of-sample backtest results; live results update in 2026.
That means our projections were closer to reality on average. It does not mean every pick wins or that betting WinForge guarantees profit. Football is variance. These are 2025 out-of-sample backtest results; live results update in 2026.
THE MODELS
WinForge runs an ensemble of 30 machine-learning models, one specialized model per position and stat. R² (variance explained, out-of-sample 2025) — WR rec yards 0.77, TE 0.70, RB rush 0.24, QB pass 0.16. R² is not the same as "accuracy"; for the plain-English accuracy claim see the section above.
THE SIMULATIONS
A single projection hides risk. WinForge uses Monte Carlo simulation to produce a range of outcomes and has run over 7.5B simulated outcomes across the pipeline.
RESPONSIBLE USE
WinForge projections are for informational and entertainment purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER. 18+ (21+ where required).