EXPECTED VALUE
BET CALCULATOR

Expected value estimates what a price is worth over a large sample. For decimal odds, EV per $1 stake equals p times (decimal odds - 1) minus (1 - p). In plain English: multiply your win probability by the profit if it wins, then subtract the probability of losing the stake. Multiply that result by 100 to show EV per $100 staked.

Break-even probability is the win rate needed to neither gain nor lose money at a given price before real-world frictions. At -110, the break-even probability is 52.38%. At +100, the break-even probability is 50.00%. If your estimated probability is higher than break-even, the price has positive expected value by the formula.

Suppose your projection says a player has a 55% chance to clear a receiving-yards line, and the offered price is +100. Decimal odds are 2.00. EV per $1 is 0.55 * 1.00 - 0.45 = 0.10, so EV per $100 is +$10.00. The edge is your 55% estimate minus the market's 50% break-even probability, or +5.00 percentage points.

WinForge computes this edge automatically for every projection versus the market line when live prop data is available. Edge is a research signal, not a guarantee of profit. Use the no-vig calculator to estimate fair market probability first, then compare that with your model or projection view. For the full workflow, read how WinForge works. WinForge is informational sports analytics, not a sportsbook. Users must be 21+ where required.