Week 1 NFL player projection
Baker Mayfield
PROJECTION
Baker Mayfield is a TB QB facing CIN in Week 1. He averaged 217 passing yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 41 to 379. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
218
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1
Passing TDs
TB vs CIN · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Baker Mayfield is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 180.2 in 2022 to 217.2 in 2025 — up 21% — across 12 then 17 games.
Measured against this week's 217.9 projection, he cleared it in 8 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 239.9 passing yards per game early, then 197.1 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
217.2
Passing Yards / game
8/17
games clearing this projection
27
touchdowns
97%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (215). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (217.9). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 379 passing yards in Week 5 against SEA; the quietest was 41 in Week 12 against LA. He finished above his own 217-per-game average in 8 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 16 of 17 games, and more than one in 9 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 77 yards. That single play is worth about 35% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 100% across his first 5 recorded games and 100% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
He also carried the ball 55 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB vs ATL | 0/0 | 167 | 3 | 100% | 30 |
| 2 | TB vs HOU | 0/0 | 215 | 2 | 100% | 22 |
| 3 | TB vs NYJ | 0/0 | 233 | 1 | 100% | 33 |
| 4 | TB vs PHI | 0/0 | 289 | 2 | 100% | 77 |
| 5 | TB vs SEA | 0/0 | 379 | 2 | 100% | 57 |
| 6 | TB vs SF | 0/0 | 256 | 2 | 100% | 45 |
| 7 | TB vs DET | 0/0 | 228 | 1 | 99% | 30 |
| 8 | TB vs NO | 0/0 | 152 | 0 | 97% | 24 |
| 10 | TB vs NE | 0/0 | 273 | 3 | 100% | 31 |
| 11 | TB vs BUF | 0/0 | 173 | 2 | 99% | 28 |
| 12 | TB vs LA | 0/0 | 41 | 1 | 56% | 14 |
| 13 | TB vs ARI | 0/0 | 194 | 1 | 100% | 31 |
| 14 | TB vs NO | 0/0 | 122 | 1 | 100% | 24 |
| 15 | TB vs ATL | 0/0 | 277 | 2 | -- | -- |
| 16 | TB vs CAR | 0/0 | 145 | 1 | 100% | 40 |
| 17 | TB vs MIA | 0/0 | 346 | 2 | 100% | 59 |
| 18 | TB vs CAR | 0/0 | 203 | 1 | 100% | 22 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12 | 0 | 2,163 | 180.2 | 11 | 12 |
| 2023 | 17 | 0 | 4,044 | 237.9 | 29 | 19.4 |
| 2024 | 17 | 0 | 4,500 | 264.7 | 44 | 26.3 |
| 2025 | 17 | 0 | 3,693 | 217.2 | 27 | 19 |
CAREER VS CIN
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Wk 9 | CAR | 0/0 | 155 | 2 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Baker Mayfield is tagged as starter for TB. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with CIN ranked #27 vs QB and allowing 19.4 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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