What is the break-even probability at -110?

At -110, the break-even probability is 52.38%. You need an estimated win probability above that number before the price has positive expected value by the formula.

Does +EV guarantee profit?

No. +EV is a research signal based on probability assumptions. Estimates can be wrong, outcomes are volatile, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

Expected value guide

WHAT IS
+EV BETTING?

Q: What does +EV betting mean?

+EV means positive expected value: your estimated probability is higher than the break-even probability implied by the offered price.

+EV betting means a price has positive expected value when your estimated probability is higher than the break-even probability implied by the odds. It is a probability-and-price concept, not a guarantee that the next result wins.

THE PLAIN DEFINITION

Expected value asks what a decision is worth over a large sample if the same situation could be repeated many times. A bet or pick-style decision is +EV when the estimated chance of success is high enough to overcome the price being offered. In WinForge terms, edge is the gap between model probability and market-implied probability. Edge is a research signal, not a profit guarantee.

THE EV FORMULA

For decimal odds, EV per $1 stake = p * (decimal odds - 1) - (1 - p). The first half estimates the profit side if the outcome wins. The second half subtracts the probability of losing the stake. At -110, decimal odds are about 1.9091, so the break-even probability is 1 / 1.9091 = 52.38%.

WORKED NFL PROP EXAMPLE

Suppose an NFL receiving-yards prop is priced at +100, and your projection process estimates a 55% chance the player clears the line. At +100, decimal odds are 2.00 and break-even probability is 50.00%. EV per $1 is 0.55 * 1.00 - 0.45 = +0.10, or +$10 per $100 by the formula. The edge is +5 percentage points.

HOW PROJECTION BECOMES EDGE

A projection becomes useful for edge research when it can be translated into a probability of going over or under a line. WinForge estimates player stat distributions, then compares over-line probability with the market break-even probability. If the model probability is higher than the market break-even number, the difference is an edge signal.

NEXT STEPS

Use the EV calculator for quick math, the no-vig calculator to remove market margin, and how WinForge works for the projection workflow. WinForge is informational sports analytics, not a sportsbook. Users must be 21+ where required.