NFL DFS projection research

NFL DFS
PROJECTIONS

WinForge turns football context into player projection ranges for DFS research: floor, median, ceiling, matchup context, and volatility behind each stat view.

WHAT WINFORGE PROJECTS

WinForge projects NFL player stat categories used across fantasy, DFS, and prop research: passing yards and touchdowns, rushing attempts and yards, targets, receptions, receiving yards, and fantasy scoring context. Each projection is research context, not a lineup instruction or contest guarantee.

RANGE, NOT ONE NUMBER

A single projection can hide the real risk. WinForge shows floor, median, ceiling, and volatility so a DFS researcher can separate stable volume from thin outcomes that need one long touchdown or a perfect game script.

FOOTBALL CONTEXT

Usage, target share, carry share, opponent defense, injuries, weather, travel, short weeks, and game environment all shape how a player can get to a DFS score. Role creates opportunity, matchup shapes efficiency, and late injury news can move volume quickly.

THIS WEEK'S DFS PROJECTIONS BY POSITION

Median projections for the current week, free and without an account. DFS lineups are built around backfield and receiving volume, so those positions lead here.

Derrick Henry (BAL RB) — 106 rushing yards vs IND
Kyren Williams (LA RB) — 73 rushing yards vs SF
Bijan Robinson (ATL RB) — 70 rushing yards vs PIT
Saquon Barkley (PHI RB) — 66 rushing yards vs WAS
Zach Charbonnet (SEA RB) — 63 rushing yards vs NE
J.K. Dobbins (DEN RB) — 63 rushing yards vs KC
Kenneth Walker III (KC RB) — 59 rushing yards vs DEN
De'Von Achane (MIA RB) — 58 rushing yards vs LV

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA WR) — 94 receiving yards vs NE
Puka Nacua (LA WR) — 93 receiving yards vs SF
Zay Flowers (BAL WR) — 81 receiving yards vs IND
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET WR) — 80 receiving yards vs NO
Davante Adams (LA WR) — 78 receiving yards vs SF
A.J. Brown (NE WR) — 76 receiving yards vs SEA
Rome Odunze (CHI WR) — 76 receiving yards vs CAR
Nico Collins (HOU WR) — 75 receiving yards vs BUF

Brock Purdy (SF QB) — 254 passing yards vs LA
Matthew Stafford (LA QB) — 251 passing yards vs SF
Bo Nix (DEN QB) — 250 passing yards vs KC
Jacoby Brissett (ARI QB) — 244 passing yards vs LAC
Patrick Mahomes (KC QB) — 239 passing yards vs DEN
Tyler Shough (NO QB) — 239 passing yards vs DET
Drake Maye (NE QB) — 238 passing yards vs SEA
Trevor Lawrence (JAX QB) — 235 passing yards vs CLE

Browse every player projection

ACCURACY, STATED CAREFULLY

In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge WR receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. That result applies only to that stat and test period; it is not a promise that every DFS projection or player pick will be correct. Read the public accuracy ledger and methodology for full context.

RELATED TOOLS

If you are comparing projections to a line, try the EV calculator. If your workflow is PrizePicks-style pick evaluation, see the PrizePicks evaluator. For broader market comparison, use the model vs consensus page.

RESPONSIBLE USE

WinForge is informational sports analytics, not a sportsbook, and does not accept or place wagers. Projections and edges are model estimates, not guarantees. 21+. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

What are NFL DFS projections?

NFL DFS projections estimate how players may perform in a given slate using role, matchup, team context, and historical performance. WinForge shows ranges around those estimates instead of only a single point projection.

Does WinForge guarantee a profitable DFS lineup?

No. WinForge provides projection research and football context. It does not guarantee DFS results, contest profit, or any specific player outcome.

How should I use floor, median, and ceiling?

Floor helps describe downside risk, median is the middle of the simulated outcome range, and ceiling highlights upside if role and game script cooperate.

NFL DFSPROJECTIONS