NFL fantasy projection research

NFL FANTASY
PROJECTIONS

WinForge turns football context into fantasy projection ranges. The goal is to show why a player projects where he does: role, usage, matchup, game environment, floor, median, ceiling, and volatility.

WHAT WINFORGE PROJECTS

WinForge projects passing production, rushing workload, targets, receptions, receiving yards, and fantasy scoring context. This public hub describes the projection workflow; it does not publish gated player values.

ROLE BEFORE BOX SCORE

Targets, carries, snaps, routes, quarterback context, and injury-driven opportunity shape fantasy output. WinForge is built to show how those football inputs move the projection range.

HOW FANTASY PLAYERS CAN USE IT

Use the projection range beside league scoring, roster needs, injury reports, weather, and game script. A projection is one input in a fantasy decision, not a guarantee.

THIS WEEK'S FANTASY PROJECTIONS BY POSITION

Median projections for the current week, free and without an account. Start/sit calls usually turn on the flex spots, so running backs and tight ends lead here, with receivers alongside them.

Derrick Henry (BAL RB) — 106 rushing yards vs IND
Kyren Williams (LA RB) — 73 rushing yards vs SF
Bijan Robinson (ATL RB) — 70 rushing yards vs PIT
Saquon Barkley (PHI RB) — 66 rushing yards vs WAS
Zach Charbonnet (SEA RB) — 63 rushing yards vs NE
J.K. Dobbins (DEN RB) — 63 rushing yards vs KC
Kenneth Walker III (KC RB) — 59 rushing yards vs DEN
De'Von Achane (MIA RB) — 58 rushing yards vs LV

Brock Bowers (LV TE) — 33 receiving yards vs MIA
Trey McBride (ARI TE) — 33 receiving yards vs LAC
Kyle Pitts Sr. (ATL TE) — 32 receiving yards vs PIT
Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE TE) — 24 receiving yards vs JAX

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA WR) — 94 receiving yards vs NE
Puka Nacua (LA WR) — 93 receiving yards vs SF
Zay Flowers (BAL WR) — 81 receiving yards vs IND
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET WR) — 80 receiving yards vs NO
Davante Adams (LA WR) — 78 receiving yards vs SF
A.J. Brown (NE WR) — 76 receiving yards vs SEA
Rome Odunze (CHI WR) — 76 receiving yards vs CAR
Nico Collins (HOU WR) — 75 receiving yards vs BUF

Browse every player projection

ACCURACY, STATED CAREFULLY

In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge WR receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. That result applies only to that stat and test period; it is not a blanket fantasy accuracy claim. Read the public accuracy ledger and model vs consensus.

RELATED WINFORGE PAGES

Compare this fantasy workflow with NFL DFS projections, NFL prop projections, and the DFS Lineup Tool.

RESPONSIBLE USE

WinForge is informational sports analytics, not a sportsbook, and does not accept or place wagers. Projections and edges are model estimates, not guarantees. 21+. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

What are NFL fantasy projections?

NFL fantasy projections estimate player fantasy output from underlying stats such as targets, receptions, rushing volume, passing production, touchdowns, and game context.

Does WinForge show a range of outcomes?

Yes. WinForge describes floor, median, and ceiling ranges so users can understand downside risk, middle outcome, and upside rather than relying on one number.

Do fantasy projections guarantee start/sit results?

No. Fantasy football is volatile. WinForge projections are research context, not guarantees that a player will outscore another option or hit a fantasy score.

NFL FANTASYPROJECTIONS