Week 1 NFL player projection
Aaron Rodgers
PROJECTION
Aaron Rodgers is a PIT QB facing ATL in Week 1. He averaged 208 passing yards across 16 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 116 to 294. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
213
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1
Passing TDs
PIT vs ATL · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Aaron Rodgers has been consistent rather than trending. 207.6 passing yards per game in 2025, compared with 217.4 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 212.9 projection, he cleared it in 8 of 16 games last season.
Split his 16 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 211.5 passing yards per game early, then 203.8 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
207.6
Passing Yards / game
8/16
games clearing this projection
1
targets
95%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (211). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (212.9). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 294 passing yards in Week 18 against BAL; the quietest was 116 in Week 11 against CIN. He finished above his own 208-per-game average in 8 of 16 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 14 of 16 games, and more than one in 7 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 80 yards. That single play is worth about 39% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 98% across his first 5 recorded games and 97% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
He also carried the ball 21 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT vs NYJ | 0/0 | 244 | 4 | 100% | 31 |
| 2 | PIT vs SEA | 0/0 | 203 | 1 | 95% | 65 |
| 3 | PIT vs NE | 0/0 | 139 | 2 | 100% | 21 |
| 4 | PIT vs MIN | 0/0 | 200 | 1 | 100% | 80 |
| 6 | PIT vs CLE | 0/0 | 235 | 2 | 95% | 36 |
| 7 | PIT vs CIN | 0/0 | 249 | 4 | 100% | 68 |
| 8 | PIT vs GB | 0/0 | 219 | 2 | 100% | 45 |
| 9 | PIT vs IND | 0/0 | 203 | 1 | 100% | 18 |
| 10 | PIT vs LAC | 0/0 | 161 | 1 | 100% | 27 |
| 11 | PIT vs CIN | 0/0 | 116 | 1 | 57% | 31 |
| 13 | PIT vs BUF | 0/0 | 117 | 0 | 84% | 26 |
| 14 | PIT vs BAL | 1/1 | 284 | 2 | 100% | 52 |
| 15 | PIT vs MIA | 0/0 | 224 | 2 | -- | -- |
| 16 | PIT vs DET | 0/0 | 266 | 1 | 100% | 45 |
| 17 | PIT vs CLE | 0/0 | 168 | 0 | 100% | 29 |
| 18 | PIT vs BAL | 0/0 | 294 | 1 | 100% | 31 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 0 | 3,695 | 217.4 | 27 | 17.1 |
| 2023 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024 | 17 | 0 | 3,897 | 229.2 | 28 | 18.3 |
| 2025 | 16 | 1 | 3,322 | 207.6 | 25 | 17.2 |
CAREER VS ATL
No career game against ATL on record in the 2022-2025 seasons WinForge stores. There is no head-to-head sample to lean on here, which is itself worth knowing.
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Aaron Rodgers is tagged as starter for PIT. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with ATL ranked #15 vs QB and allowing 16.1 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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