Week 1 NFL player projection
Matthew Stafford
PROJECTION
Matthew Stafford is a LA QB facing SF in Week 1. He averaged 277 passing yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 130 to 457. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
251
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
2
Passing TDs
LA vs SF · Thu, Sep 10 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Matthew Stafford has been consistent rather than trending. 276.9 passing yards per game in 2025, compared with 231.9 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 251.1 projection, he cleared it in 11 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 268.4 passing yards per game early, then 284.4 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
276.9
Passing Yards / game
11/17
games clearing this projection
46
touchdowns
98%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (273). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (251.1). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 457 passing yards in Week 16 against SEA; the quietest was 130 in Week 11 against SEA. He finished above his own 277-per-game average in 8 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 17 of 17 games, and more than one in 15 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 88 yards. That single play is worth about 32% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 100% across his first 5 recorded games and 96% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
He also carried the ball 29 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA vs HOU | 0/0 | 245 | 1 | 100% | 36 |
| 2 | LA vs TEN | 0/0 | 298 | 2 | 100% | 40 |
| 3 | LA vs PHI | 0/0 | 196 | 2 | 100% | 44 |
| 4 | LA vs IND | 0/0 | 375 | 3 | 100% | 88 |
| 5 | LA vs SF | 0/0 | 389 | 3 | 100% | 38 |
| 6 | LA vs BAL | 0/0 | 181 | 1 | 100% | 30 |
| 7 | LA vs JAX | 0/0 | 182 | 5 | 96% | 31 |
| 9 | LA vs NO | 0/0 | 281 | 4 | 100% | 39 |
| 10 | LA vs SF | 0/0 | 280 | 4 | 100% | 32 |
| 11 | LA vs SEA | 0/0 | 130 | 2 | 100% | 23 |
| 12 | LA vs TB | 0/0 | 273 | 3 | 100% | 31 |
| 13 | LA vs CAR | 0/0 | 243 | 2 | 100% | 51 |
| 14 | LA vs ARI | 0/0 | 281 | 3 | 83% | 32 |
| 15 | LA vs DET | 0/0 | 368 | 2 | -- | -- |
| 16 | LA vs SEA | 0/0 | 457 | 3 | 100% | 58 |
| 17 | LA vs ATL | 0/0 | 269 | 2 | 100% | 36 |
| 18 | LA vs ARI | 0/0 | 259 | 4 | 96% | 22 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 9 | 0 | 2,087 | 231.9 | 11 | 14.6 |
| 2023 | 15 | 0 | 3,965 | 264.3 | 24 | 19.2 |
| 2024 | 16 | 0 | 3,762 | 235.1 | 20 | 16 |
| 2025 | 17 | 0 | 4,707 | 276.9 | 46 | 26.2 |
CAREER VS SF
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 10 | LA | 0/0 | 280 | 4 |
| 2025 | Wk 5 | LA | 0/0 | 389 | 3 |
| 2024 | Wk 15 | LA | 0/0 | 160 | 0 |
| 2024 | Wk 3 | LA | 0/0 | 221 | 1 |
| 2023 | Wk 2 | LA | 0/0 | 307 | 1 |
| 2022 | Wk 8 | LA | 0/0 | 187 | 2 |
| 2022 | Wk 4 | LA | 0/0 | 254 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Matthew Stafford is tagged as starter for LA. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with SF ranked #19 vs QB and allowing 17.5 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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