Week 1 NFL player projection
Puka Nacua
PROJECTION
Puka Nacua is a LA WR facing SF in Week 1. He averaged 107 receiving yards across 16 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 28 to 225. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
93
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
7.4
Receptions
LA vs SF · Thu, Sep 10 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Puka Nacua is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 87.4 in 2023 to 107.2 in 2025 — up 23% — on 160 then 166 targets.
Measured against this week's 93.2 projection, he cleared it in 8 of 16 games last season.
Split his 16 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 96.9 receiving yards per game early, then 117.5 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
107.2
Receiving Yards / game
8/16
games clearing this projection
166
targets
69%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (93). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (93.2). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 225 receiving yards in Week 16 against SEA; the quietest was 28 in Week 6 against BAL. He finished above his own 107-per-game average in 6 of 16 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 9 of 16 games, and more than one in 2 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 58 yards. That single play is worth about 54% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 79% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 68% across his last 5 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 166 targets and 10 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA vs HOU | 10/11 | 130 | 0 | 63% | 25 |
| 2 | LA vs TEN | 8/9 | 91 | 1 | 69% | 45 |
| 3 | LA vs PHI | 11/15 | 112 | 0 | 91% | 20 |
| 4 | LA vs IND | 13/15 | 170 | 1 | 81% | 31 |
| 5 | LA vs SF | 10/12 | 85 | 1 | 93% | 16 |
| 6 | LA vs BAL | 2/3 | 28 | 0 | 51% | 23 |
| 9 | LA vs NO | 7/8 | 95 | 1 | 49% | 39 |
| 10 | LA vs SF | 5/6 | 64 | 1 | 52% | 22 |
| 11 | LA vs SEA | 7/8 | 75 | 0 | 67% | 19 |
| 12 | LA vs TB | 7/11 | 97 | 0 | 82% | 31 |
| 13 | LA vs CAR | 6/9 | 72 | 0 | 73% | 31 |
| 14 | LA vs ARI | 7/11 | 167 | 2 | 44% | 32 |
| 15 | LA vs DET | 9/11 | 181 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | LA vs SEA | 12/16 | 225 | 2 | 78% | 58 |
| 17 | LA vs ATL | 5/10 | 47 | 1 | 74% | 11 |
| 18 | LA vs ARI | 10/11 | 76 | 1 | 69% | 17 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | 160 | 1,486 | 87.4 | 6 | 20.6 |
| 2024 | 11 | 106 | 990 | 90 | 4 | 22.4 |
| 2025 | 16 | 166 | 1,715 | 107.2 | 11 | 27.3 |
CAREER VS SF
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 10 | LA | 5/6 | 64 | 1 |
| 2025 | Wk 5 | LA | 10/12 | 85 | 1 |
| 2024 | Wk 15 | LA | 7/8 | 97 | 0 |
| 2023 | Wk 18 | LA | 4/6 | 41 | 1 |
| 2023 | Wk 2 | LA | 15/20 | 147 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Puka Nacua is tagged as WR1 for LA. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with SF ranked #20 vs WR and allowing 26.2 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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