Week 1 NFL player projection
Davante Adams
PROJECTION
Davante Adams is a LA WR facing SF in Week 1. He averaged 56 receiving yards across 14 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 1 to 106. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
WHERE DAVANTE ADAMS IS TRENDING
The trend on Davante Adams points down, and the projection has to be read against that first. Per game he has fallen from 89.2 in 2022 to 56.4 in 2025 — down 37%.
Availability is part of the story: 14 games on record in 2025, best of 106 in Week 2, worst of 1.
Measured against this week's 77.9 projection, he cleared it in 2 of 14 games last season.
Split his 14 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 61.6 receiving yards per game early, then 51.1 late.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
78
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
6.1
Receptions
LA vs SF · Thu, Sep 10 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
56.4
Receiving Yards / game
2/14
games clearing this projection
114
targets
73%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (57). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (77.9). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 106 receiving yards in Week 2 against TEN; the quietest was 1 in Week 11 against SEA. He finished above his own 56-per-game average in 7 of 14 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 9 of 14 games, and more than one in 4 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 44 yards. That single play is worth about 78% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 85% of snaps across his first 4 recorded games, then 70% across his last 4 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 114 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA vs HOU | 4/8 | 51 | 0 | 90% | 24 |
| 2 | LA vs TEN | 6/13 | 106 | 1 | 80% | 33 |
| 3 | LA vs PHI | 3/8 | 56 | 1 | 86% | 44 |
| 4 | LA vs IND | 4/6 | 56 | 1 | 83% | 25 |
| 5 | LA vs SF | 5/11 | 88 | 0 | 85% | 26 |
| 6 | LA vs BAL | 4/9 | 39 | 0 | 79% | 21 |
| 7 | LA vs JAX | 5/8 | 35 | 3 | 59% | 16 |
| 9 | LA vs NO | 5/7 | 60 | 2 | 60% | 29 |
| 10 | LA vs SF | 6/8 | 77 | 1 | 51% | 23 |
| 11 | LA vs SEA | 1/8 | 1 | 1 | 86% | 1 |
| 12 | LA vs TB | 5/8 | 62 | 2 | 77% | 24 |
| 13 | LA vs CAR | 4/5 | 58 | 2 | 75% | 32 |
| 14 | LA vs ARI | 4/6 | 29 | 0 | 43% | 10 |
| 15 | LA vs DET | 4/9 | 71 | 0 | -- | -- |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 180 | 1,516 | 89.2 | 14 | 22.7 |
| 2023 | 17 | 175 | 1,144 | 67.3 | 8 | 18.6 |
| 2024 | 14 | 141 | 1,063 | 75.9 | 8 | 20.1 |
| 2025 | 14 | 114 | 789 | 56.4 | 14 | 17.9 |
CAREER VS SF
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 10 | LA | 6/8 | 77 | 1 |
| 2025 | Wk 5 | LA | 5/11 | 88 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 17 | LV | 7/11 | 153 | 2 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Davante Adams is tagged as WR2 rotation for LA. The page uses top-2 WR projection volume for LA, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with SF ranked #20 vs WR and allowing 26.2 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
Browse every player projection · no-vig calculator · EV calculator