Week 1 NFL player projection
Kyren Williams
PROJECTION
Kyren Williams is a LA RB facing SF in Week 1. He averaged 74 rushing yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 46 to 114. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
73
Rushing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
2.2
Receptions
LA vs SF · Thu, Sep 10 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Kyren Williams is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 17.4 in 2022 to 73.6 in 2025 — up 323% — on 12 then 50 targets.
Measured against this week's 72.8 projection, he cleared it in 8 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 73.2 rushing yards per game early, then 74 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
73.6
Rushing Yards / game
8/17
games clearing this projection
50
targets
69%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (72). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (72.8). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 114 rushing yards in Week 9 against NO; the quietest was 46 in Week 12 against TB. He finished above his own 74-per-game average in 7 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 10 of 17 games, and more than one in 3 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 34 yards. That single play is worth about 46% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 77% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 65% across his last 5 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 50 targets and 259 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA vs HOU | 1/2 | 66 | 1 | 82% | 9 |
| 2 | LA vs TEN | 2/2 | 66 | 0 | 70% | 15 |
| 3 | LA vs PHI | 2/3 | 94 | 1 | 76% | 13 |
| 4 | LA vs IND | 3/4 | 77 | 0 | 68% | 11 |
| 5 | LA vs SF | 8/10 | 65 | 2 | 91% | 20 |
| 6 | LA vs BAL | 2/2 | 50 | 1 | 75% | 30 |
| 7 | LA vs JAX | 2/3 | 54 | 0 | 60% | 10 |
| 9 | LA vs NO | 0/0 | 114 | 1 | 69% | 15 |
| 10 | LA vs SF | 2/3 | 73 | 2 | 58% | 12 |
| 11 | LA vs SEA | 1/2 | 91 | 1 | 69% | 34 |
| 12 | LA vs TB | 1/1 | 46 | 0 | 66% | 9 |
| 13 | LA vs CAR | 0/1 | 72 | 1 | 67% | 12 |
| 14 | LA vs ARI | 2/2 | 84 | 1 | 51% | 18 |
| 15 | LA vs DET | 1/1 | 78 | 2 | -- | -- |
| 16 | LA vs SEA | 3/6 | 70 | 0 | 71% | 8 |
| 17 | LA vs ATL | 3/3 | 92 | 0 | 71% | 22 |
| 18 | LA vs ARI | 3/5 | 60 | 0 | 63% | 22 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Rushing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 8 | 12 | 139 | 17.4 | 0 | 4.4 |
| 2023 | 12 | 48 | 1,144 | 95.3 | 15 | 22.6 |
| 2024 | 16 | 40 | 1,299 | 81.2 | 16 | 18.3 |
| 2025 | 17 | 50 | 1,252 | 73.6 | 13 | 16.6 |
CAREER VS SF
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 10 | LA | 2/3 | 73 | 2 |
| 2025 | Wk 5 | LA | 8/10 | 65 | 2 |
| 2024 | Wk 15 | LA | 2/2 | 108 | 0 |
| 2024 | Wk 3 | LA | 2/2 | 89 | 3 |
| 2023 | Wk 2 | LA | 6/10 | 52 | 2 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Kyren Williams is tagged as RB1 for LA. The page uses team-leading RB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with SF ranked #21 vs RB and allowing 20.9 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge rushing-yards model explained 42% of the variation in actual RB rushing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
Browse every player projection · no-vig calculator · EV calculator