Week 1 NFL player projection
Bijan Robinson
PROJECTION
Bijan Robinson is a ATL RB facing PIT in Week 1. He averaged 87 rushing yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 24 to 195. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
70
Rushing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
3.4
Receptions
ATL vs PIT · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Bijan Robinson is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 57.4 in 2023 to 86.9 in 2025 — up 51% — on 86 then 103 targets.
Measured against this week's 69.7 projection, he cleared it in 12 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 74.4 rushing yards per game early, then 98.1 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
86.9
Rushing Yards / game
12/17
games clearing this projection
103
targets
77%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (76). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (69.7). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 195 rushing yards in Week 17 against LA; the quietest was 24 in Week 1 against TB. He finished above his own 87-per-game average in 6 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 9 of 17 games, and more than one in 2 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 93 yards. That single play is worth about 107% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 74% across his first 5 recorded games and 77% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 103 targets and 287 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL vs TB | 6/7 | 24 | 1 | 83% | 50 |
| 2 | ATL vs MIN | 3/5 | 143 | 0 | 65% | 25 |
| 3 | ATL vs CAR | 5/6 | 72 | 0 | 80% | 25 |
| 4 | ATL vs WAS | 4/5 | 75 | 1 | 69% | 69 |
| 6 | ATL vs BUF | 6/8 | 170 | 1 | 74% | 81 |
| 7 | ATL vs SF | 6/8 | 40 | 1 | 88% | 15 |
| 8 | ATL vs MIA | 3/3 | 25 | 0 | 60% | 17 |
| 9 | ATL vs NE | 8/10 | 46 | 0 | 96% | 15 |
| 10 | ATL vs IND | 2/2 | 84 | 0 | 86% | 16 |
| 11 | ATL vs CAR | 4/5 | 104 | 2 | 85% | 19 |
| 12 | ATL vs NO | 2/2 | 70 | 0 | 66% | 32 |
| 13 | ATL vs NYJ | 5/7 | 142 | 1 | 87% | 42 |
| 14 | ATL vs SEA | 2/2 | 86 | 0 | 67% | 11 |
| 15 | ATL vs TB | 8/11 | 93 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 16 | ATL vs ARI | 7/11 | 76 | 1 | 70% | 41 |
| 17 | ATL vs LA | 5/8 | 195 | 2 | 79% | 93 |
| 18 | ATL vs NO | 3/3 | 33 | 0 | 84% | 12 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Rushing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | 86 | 976 | 57.4 | 8 | 16.4 |
| 2024 | 17 | 72 | 1,456 | 85.6 | 15 | 21.8 |
| 2025 | 17 | 103 | 1,478 | 86.9 | 11 | 24 |
CAREER VS PIT
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 1 | ATL | 5/5 | 68 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Bijan Robinson is tagged as RB1 for ATL. The page uses team-leading RB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with PIT ranked #6 vs RB and allowing 17.4 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge rushing-yards model explained 42% of the variation in actual RB rushing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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