Week 1 NFL player projection
Jahan Dotson
PROJECTION
Jahan Dotson is a ATL WR facing PIT in Week 1. He averaged 17 receiving yards across 15 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 59. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
WHERE JAHAN DOTSON IS TRENDING
The trend on Jahan Dotson points down, and the projection has to be read against that first. Per game he has fallen from 43.6 in 2022 to 17.5 in 2025 — down 60%.
Availability is part of the story: 15 games on record in 2025, best of 59 in Week 1, worst of 0.
Measured against this week's 54.2 projection, he cleared it in 1 of 15 games last season.
Split his 15 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 21.6 receiving yards per game early, then 13.9 late.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
54
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
4.1
Receptions
ATL vs PIT · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
17.5
Receiving Yards / game
1/15
games clearing this projection
36
targets
58%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (12). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (54.2). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 59 receiving yards in Week 1 against DAL; the quietest was 0 in Week 17 against BUF. He finished above his own 17-per-game average in 5 of 15 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 1 of 15 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 51 yards. That single play is worth about 292% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 57% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 63% across his last 5 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 36 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI vs DAL | 3/3 | 59 | 0 | 46% | 51 |
| 2 | PHI vs KC | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 37% | 4 |
| 3 | PHI vs LA | 1/3 | 7 | 0 | 78% | 7 |
| 4 | PHI vs TB | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 54% | -- |
| 5 | PHI vs DEN | 1/3 | 24 | 0 | 72% | 24 |
| 6 | PHI vs NYG | 1/2 | 17 | 0 | 75% | 17 |
| 8 | PHI vs NYG | 1/2 | 40 | 1 | 71% | 40 |
| 10 | PHI vs GB | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 30% | -- |
| 11 | PHI vs DET | 2/2 | 43 | 0 | 32% | 34 |
| 12 | PHI vs DAL | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 54% | -- |
| 13 | PHI vs CHI | 1/3 | 12 | 0 | 59% | 12 |
| 14 | PHI vs LAC | 1/3 | 3 | 0 | 49% | 3 |
| 16 | PHI vs WAS | 3/3 | 13 | 0 | 66% | 6 |
| 17 | PHI vs BUF | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 48% | -- |
| 18 | PHI vs WAS | 3/8 | 40 | 0 | 94% | 16 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12 | 61 | 523 | 43.6 | 7 | 12.2 |
| 2023 | 17 | 83 | 518 | 30.5 | 4 | 8.8 |
| 2024 | 14 | 33 | 216 | 15.4 | 0 | 3.7 |
| 2025 | 15 | 36 | 262 | 17.5 | 1 | 3.9 |
CAREER VS PIT
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 15 | PHI | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Jahan Dotson is tagged as WR2 rotation for ATL. The page uses top-2 WR projection volume for ATL, then layers in a softer prior matchup with PIT ranked #27 vs WR and allowing 28.6 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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