Week 1 NFL player projection
Kyle Pitts Sr.
PROJECTION
Kyle Pitts Sr. is a ATL TE facing PIT in Week 1. He averaged 55 receiving yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 14 to 166. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
32
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
3.3
Receptions
ATL vs PIT · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Kyle Pitts Sr. is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 35.6 in 2022 to 54.6 in 2025 — up 53% — on 59 then 118 targets.
Measured against this week's 32.3 projection, he cleared it in 13 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 47.8 receiving yards per game early, then 60.7 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
54.6
Receiving Yards / game
13/17
games clearing this projection
118
targets
88%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (57). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (32.3). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 166 receiving yards in Week 15 against TB; the quietest was 14 in Week 11 against CAR. He finished above his own 55-per-game average in 9 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 3 of 17 games, and more than one in 1 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 30 yards. That single play is worth about 55% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 81% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 91% across his last 5 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 118 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL vs TB | 7/8 | 59 | 0 | 78% | 14 |
| 2 | ATL vs MIN | 4/5 | 37 | 0 | 80% | 14 |
| 3 | ATL vs CAR | 4/6 | 39 | 0 | 82% | 17 |
| 4 | ATL vs WAS | 5/5 | 70 | 1 | 74% | 26 |
| 6 | ATL vs BUF | 3/4 | 18 | 0 | 93% | 10 |
| 7 | ATL vs SF | 7/10 | 62 | 0 | 82% | 19 |
| 8 | ATL vs MIA | 9/9 | 59 | 0 | 92% | 24 |
| 9 | ATL vs NE | 4/7 | 38 | 0 | 95% | 22 |
| 10 | ATL vs IND | 2/5 | 38 | 0 | 92% | 25 |
| 11 | ATL vs CAR | 2/3 | 14 | 0 | 83% | 7 |
| 12 | ATL vs NO | 2/5 | 25 | 0 | 95% | 23 |
| 13 | ATL vs NYJ | 7/8 | 82 | 0 | 91% | 24 |
| 14 | ATL vs SEA | 6/10 | 90 | 0 | 92% | 30 |
| 15 | ATL vs TB | 11/12 | 166 | 3 | -- | -- |
| 16 | ATL vs ARI | 7/9 | 57 | 1 | 87% | 12 |
| 17 | ATL vs LA | 2/3 | 16 | 0 | 92% | 11 |
| 18 | ATL vs NO | 6/9 | 58 | 0 | 92% | 15 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 10 | 59 | 356 | 35.6 | 2 | 9 |
| 2023 | 17 | 90 | 667 | 39.2 | 3 | 9.6 |
| 2024 | 17 | 74 | 602 | 35.4 | 4 | 9.1 |
| 2025 | 17 | 118 | 928 | 54.6 | 5 | 14.7 |
CAREER VS PIT
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 1 | ATL | 3/3 | 26 | 1 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Kyle Pitts Sr. is tagged as TE1 for ATL. The page uses team-leading TE projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with PIT ranked #30 vs TE and allowing 13.6 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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