Week 1 NFL player projection
Drake London
PROJECTION
Drake London is a ATL WR facing PIT in Week 1. He averaged 77 receiving yards across 12 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 4 to 158. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
71
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
5.8
Receptions
ATL vs PIT · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Drake London is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 50.9 in 2022 to 76.6 in 2025 — up 51% — on 117 then 112 targets.
Measured against this week's 71 projection, he cleared it in 6 of 12 games last season.
Split his 12 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 78.2 receiving yards per game early, then 75 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
76.6
Receiving Yards / game
6/12
games clearing this projection
112
targets
91%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (66.5). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (71). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 158 receiving yards in Week 6 against BUF; the quietest was 4 in Week 17 against LA. He finished above his own 77-per-game average in 6 of 12 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 5 of 12 games, and more than one in 1 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 43 yards. That single play is worth about 56% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 86% across his first 4 recorded games and 88% across his last 4. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 112 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL vs TB | 8/15 | 55 | 0 | 88% | 12 |
| 2 | ATL vs MIN | 3/4 | 49 | 0 | 85% | 21 |
| 3 | ATL vs CAR | 5/8 | 55 | 0 | 86% | 18 |
| 4 | ATL vs WAS | 8/10 | 110 | 1 | 85% | 43 |
| 6 | ATL vs BUF | 10/16 | 158 | 1 | 97% | 39 |
| 7 | ATL vs SF | 4/10 | 42 | 0 | 98% | 19 |
| 9 | ATL vs NE | 9/14 | 118 | 3 | 98% | 40 |
| 10 | ATL vs IND | 6/8 | 104 | 1 | 98% | 30 |
| 11 | ATL vs CAR | 7/9 | 119 | 0 | 92% | 41 |
| 16 | ATL vs ARI | 3/8 | 27 | 0 | 69% | 12 |
| 17 | ATL vs LA | 1/2 | 4 | 0 | 98% | 4 |
| 18 | ATL vs NO | 4/8 | 78 | 1 | 94% | 37 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 117 | 866 | 50.9 | 4 | 12.7 |
| 2023 | 16 | 110 | 905 | 56.6 | 2 | 12.9 |
| 2024 | 17 | 158 | 1,271 | 74.8 | 9 | 19.5 |
| 2025 | 12 | 112 | 919 | 76.6 | 7 | 19.6 |
CAREER VS PIT
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 1 | ATL | 2/3 | 15 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 13 | ATL | 6/12 | 95 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Drake London is tagged as WR1 for ATL. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with PIT ranked #27 vs WR and allowing 28.6 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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