Week 1 NFL player projection
Michael Penix Jr.
PROJECTION
Michael Penix Jr. is a ATL QB facing PIT in Week 1. He averaged 220 passing yards across 9 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 135 to 313. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
216
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1
Passing TDs
ATL vs PIT · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
The record on Michael Penix Jr. is short: 9 games in 2025 for 1,982 passing yards. That is too small a sample to call a trend, so the projection leans on role and matchup rather than his own history.
Measured against this week's 216.4 projection, he cleared it in 5 of 9 games last season.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
220.2
Passing Yards / game
5/9
games clearing this projection
10
touchdowns
--
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (221). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (216.4). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 313 passing yards in Week 4 against WAS; the quietest was 135 in Week 2 against MIN. He finished above his own 220-per-game average in 5 of 9 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 6 of 9 games, and more than one in 3 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 69 yards. That single play is worth about 31% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
He also carried the ball 21 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL vs TB | 0/0 | 298 | 2 | -- | 50 |
| 2 | ATL vs MIN | 0/0 | 135 | 0 | -- | 21 |
| 3 | ATL vs CAR | 0/0 | 172 | 0 | -- | 25 |
| 4 | ATL vs WAS | 0/0 | 313 | 2 | -- | 69 |
| 6 | ATL vs BUF | 0/0 | 250 | 1 | -- | 39 |
| 7 | ATL vs SF | 0/0 | 241 | 1 | -- | 38 |
| 9 | ATL vs NE | 0/0 | 221 | 3 | -- | 40 |
| 10 | ATL vs IND | 0/0 | 177 | 1 | -- | 30 |
| 11 | ATL vs CAR | 0/0 | 175 | 0 | -- | 41 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5 | 0 | 775 | 155 | 4 | 10 |
| 2025 | 9 | 0 | 1,982 | 220.2 | 10 | 15.4 |
CAREER VS PIT
No career game against PIT on record in the 2022-2025 seasons WinForge stores. There is no head-to-head sample to lean on here, which is itself worth knowing.
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Michael Penix Jr. is tagged as starter for ATL. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with PIT ranked #27 vs QB and allowing 19.0 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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