Week 1 NFL player projection
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
PROJECTION
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a SEA WR facing NE in Week 1. He averaged 105 receiving yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 23 to 167. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
94
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
7.4
Receptions
SEA vs NE · Wed, Sep 9 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 36.9 in 2023 to 105.5 in 2025 — up 186% — on 93 then 163 targets.
Measured against this week's 93.8 projection, he cleared it in 11 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 118.5 receiving yards per game early, then 93.9 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
105.5
Receiving Yards / game
11/17
games clearing this projection
163
targets
77%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (103). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (93.8). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 167 receiving yards in Week 12 against TEN; the quietest was 23 in Week 13 against MIN. He finished above his own 105-per-game average in 7 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 8 of 17 games, and more than one in 2 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 63 yards. That single play is worth about 60% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 72% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 84% across his last 5 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 163 targets and 7 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA vs SF | 9/13 | 124 | 0 | 77% | 40 |
| 2 | SEA vs PIT | 8/10 | 103 | 0 | 65% | 43 |
| 3 | SEA vs NO | 5/6 | 96 | 1 | 49% | 45 |
| 4 | SEA vs ARI | 4/5 | 79 | 0 | 80% | 36 |
| 5 | SEA vs TB | 8/9 | 132 | 1 | 90% | 53 |
| 6 | SEA vs JAX | 8/13 | 162 | 1 | 82% | 61 |
| 7 | SEA vs HOU | 8/14 | 123 | 1 | 88% | 26 |
| 9 | SEA vs WAS | 8/9 | 129 | 0 | 67% | 26 |
| 10 | SEA vs ARI | 5/6 | 93 | 1 | 42% | 43 |
| 11 | SEA vs LA | 9/12 | 105 | 0 | 83% | 28 |
| 12 | SEA vs TEN | 8/10 | 167 | 2 | 79% | 63 |
| 13 | SEA vs MIN | 2/4 | 23 | 0 | 82% | 17 |
| 14 | SEA vs ATL | 7/10 | 92 | 2 | 72% | 30 |
| 15 | SEA vs IND | 7/9 | 113 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | SEA vs LA | 8/13 | 96 | 1 | 96% | 27 |
| 17 | SEA vs CAR | 9/12 | 72 | 0 | 89% | 18 |
| 18 | SEA vs SF | 6/8 | 84 | 0 | 83% | 19 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | 93 | 628 | 36.9 | 4 | 10.7 |
| 2024 | 17 | 137 | 1,130 | 66.5 | 6 | 17.8 |
| 2025 | 17 | 163 | 1,793 | 105.5 | 10 | 24.5 |
CAREER VS NE
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 2 | SEA | 12/16 | 117 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is tagged as WR1 for SEA. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with NE ranked #13 vs WR and allowing 22.8 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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