Week 1 NFL player projection
Sam Darnold
PROJECTION
Sam Darnold is a SEA QB facing NE in Week 1. He averaged 238 passing yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 128 to 341. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
220
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
0
Passing TDs
SEA vs NE · Wed, Sep 9 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Sam Darnold is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 29.7 in 2023 to 238.1 in 2025 — up 702% — across 10 then 17 games.
Measured against this week's 219.9 projection, he cleared it in 10 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 260.5 passing yards per game early, then 218.2 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
238.1
Passing Yards / game
10/17
games clearing this projection
25
touchdowns
96%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (244). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (219.9). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 341 passing yards in Week 5 against TB; the quietest was 128 in Week 13 against MIN. He finished above his own 238-per-game average in 10 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 12 of 17 games, and more than one in 8 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 67 yards. That single play is worth about 28% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 94% across his first 5 recorded games and 97% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
He also carried the ball 35 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA vs SF | 0/0 | 150 | 0 | 100% | 40 |
| 2 | SEA vs PIT | 0/0 | 295 | 2 | 100% | 43 |
| 3 | SEA vs NO | 0/0 | 218 | 2 | 68% | 45 |
| 4 | SEA vs ARI | 0/0 | 242 | 1 | 100% | 36 |
| 5 | SEA vs TB | 0/0 | 341 | 4 | 100% | 53 |
| 6 | SEA vs JAX | 0/0 | 295 | 2 | 100% | 61 |
| 7 | SEA vs HOU | 0/0 | 213 | 1 | 100% | 32 |
| 9 | SEA vs WAS | 0/0 | 330 | 4 | 94% | 60 |
| 10 | SEA vs ARI | 0/0 | 178 | 1 | 90% | 67 |
| 11 | SEA vs LA | 0/0 | 279 | 0 | 100% | 28 |
| 12 | SEA vs TEN | 0/0 | 244 | 2 | 100% | 63 |
| 13 | SEA vs MIN | 0/0 | 128 | 0 | 96% | 21 |
| 14 | SEA vs ATL | 0/0 | 249 | 3 | 87% | 33 |
| 15 | SEA vs IND | 0/0 | 271 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | SEA vs LA | 0/0 | 270 | 2 | 100% | 46 |
| 17 | SEA vs CAR | 0/0 | 147 | 1 | 100% | 18 |
| 18 | SEA vs SF | 0/0 | 198 | 0 | 100% | 24 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6 | 0 | 1,143 | 190.5 | 9 | 17.1 |
| 2023 | 10 | 0 | 297 | 29.7 | 3 | 2.8 |
| 2024 | 17 | 0 | 4,319 | 254.1 | 36 | 22.5 |
| 2025 | 17 | 0 | 4,048 | 238.1 | 25 | 16.9 |
CAREER VS NE
No career game against NE on record in the 2022-2025 seasons WinForge stores. There is no head-to-head sample to lean on here, which is itself worth knowing.
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Sam Darnold is tagged as starter for SEA. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with NE ranked #11 vs QB and allowing 14.9 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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