Week 1 NFL player projection
Zach Charbonnet
PROJECTION
Zach Charbonnet is a SEA RB facing NE in Week 1. He averaged 46 rushing yards across 16 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 10 to 110. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
63
Rushing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1.8
Receptions
SEA vs NE · Wed, Sep 9 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Zach Charbonnet is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 28.9 in 2023 to 45.6 in 2025 — up 58% — on 40 then 24 targets.
Measured against this week's 62.9 projection, he cleared it in 3 of 16 games last season.
Split his 16 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 39.1 rushing yards per game early, then 52.1 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
45.6
Rushing Yards / game
3/16
games clearing this projection
24
targets
48%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (38). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (62.9). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 110 rushing yards in Week 17 against CAR; the quietest was 10 in Week 2 against PIT. He finished above his own 46-per-game average in 7 of 16 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 10 of 16 games, and more than one in 2 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 30 yards. That single play is worth about 66% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 55% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 49% across his last 5 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 24 targets and 184 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA vs SF | 0/0 | 47 | 1 | 58% | 7 |
| 2 | SEA vs PIT | 0/0 | 10 | 0 | 55% | 6 |
| 4 | SEA vs ARI | 2/2 | 39 | 1 | 47% | 15 |
| 5 | SEA vs TB | 1/2 | 36 | 1 | 56% | 12 |
| 6 | SEA vs JAX | 1/1 | 24 | 0 | 60% | 13 |
| 7 | SEA vs HOU | 2/2 | 49 | 2 | 51% | 15 |
| 9 | SEA vs WAS | 1/1 | 25 | 0 | 35% | 21 |
| 10 | SEA vs ARI | 0/0 | 83 | 1 | 37% | 30 |
| 11 | SEA vs LA | 2/2 | 37 | 0 | 43% | 6 |
| 12 | SEA vs TEN | 0/0 | 35 | 1 | 31% | 13 |
| 13 | SEA vs MIN | 0/0 | 52 | 1 | 39% | 17 |
| 14 | SEA vs ATL | 2/3 | 46 | 0 | 41% | 27 |
| 15 | SEA vs IND | 0/1 | 31 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | SEA vs LA | 4/4 | 32 | 1 | 56% | 13 |
| 17 | SEA vs CAR | 2/2 | 110 | 2 | 53% | 29 |
| 18 | SEA vs SF | 3/4 | 74 | 1 | 57% | 27 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Rushing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 16 | 40 | 462 | 28.9 | 1 | 7.7 |
| 2024 | 17 | 52 | 569 | 33.5 | 9 | 12 |
| 2025 | 16 | 24 | 730 | 45.6 | 12 | 11.8 |
CAREER VS NE
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 2 | SEA | 5/5 | 38 | 1 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Zach Charbonnet is tagged as RB1 for SEA. The page uses team-leading RB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with NE ranked #4 vs RB and allowing 16.6 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge rushing-yards model explained 42% of the variation in actual RB rushing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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