Week 1 NFL player projection
Bryce Young
PROJECTION
Bryce Young is a CAR QB facing CHI in Week 1. He averaged 188 passing yards across 16 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 54 to 448. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
196
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1
Passing TDs
CAR vs CHI · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Bryce Young has been consistent rather than trending. 188.2 passing yards per game in 2025, compared with 179.8 in 2023 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 195.5 projection, he cleared it in 6 of 16 games last season.
Split his 16 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 173.8 passing yards per game early, then 202.6 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
188.2
Passing Yards / game
6/16
games clearing this projection
25
touchdowns
97%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (166). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (195.5). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 448 passing yards in Week 11 against ATL; the quietest was 54 in Week 17 against SEA. He finished above his own 188-per-game average in 7 of 16 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 14 of 16 games, and more than one in 7 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 54 yards. That single play is worth about 29% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 96% across his first 5 recorded games and 100% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
He also carried the ball 54 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR vs JAX | 0/0 | 154 | 1 | 100% | 27 |
| 2 | CAR vs ARI | 0/0 | 328 | 3 | 100% | 40 |
| 3 | CAR vs ATL | 0/0 | 121 | 1 | 98% | 23 |
| 4 | CAR vs NE | 0/0 | 150 | 1 | 81% | 16 |
| 5 | CAR vs MIA | 0/0 | 198 | 2 | 100% | 29 |
| 6 | CAR vs DAL | 0/0 | 199 | 3 | 100% | 36 |
| 7 | CAR vs NYJ | 0/0 | 138 | 1 | 69% | 26 |
| 9 | CAR vs GB | 0/0 | 102 | 0 | 100% | 22 |
| 10 | CAR vs NO | 0/0 | 124 | 0 | 100% | 26 |
| 11 | CAR vs ATL | 0/0 | 448 | 3 | 100% | 54 |
| 12 | CAR vs SF | 0/0 | 169 | 1 | 100% | 29 |
| 13 | CAR vs LA | 0/0 | 206 | 3 | 100% | 43 |
| 15 | CAR vs NO | 0/0 | 163 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 16 | CAR vs TB | 0/0 | 191 | 2 | 100% | 34 |
| 17 | CAR vs SEA | 0/0 | 54 | 1 | 100% | 11 |
| 18 | CAR vs TB | 0/0 | 266 | 2 | 100% | 40 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 16 | 0 | 2,877 | 179.8 | 11 | 11.3 |
| 2024 | 14 | 0 | 2,403 | 171.6 | 21 | 16.2 |
| 2025 | 16 | 0 | 3,011 | 188.2 | 25 | 16.6 |
CAREER VS CHI
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 5 | CAR | 0/0 | 58 | 0 |
| 2023 | Wk 10 | CAR | 0/0 | 185 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Bryce Young is tagged as starter for CAR. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with CHI ranked #24 vs QB and allowing 18.6 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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