Week 1 NFL player projection
Tetairoa McMillan
PROJECTION
Tetairoa McMillan is a CAR WR facing CHI in Week 1. He averaged 60 receiving yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 5 to 130. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
68
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
5.9
Receptions
CAR vs CHI · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
The record on Tetairoa McMillan is short: 17 games in 2025 for 1,014 receiving yards. That is too small a sample to call a trend, so the projection leans on role and matchup rather than his own history.
Measured against this week's 67.6 projection, he cleared it in 7 of 17 games last season.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
59.6
Receiving Yards / game
7/17
games clearing this projection
122
targets
87%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (60). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (67.6). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 130 receiving yards in Week 11 against ATL; the quietest was 5 in Week 17 against SEA. He finished above his own 60-per-game average in 9 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 5 of 17 games, and more than one in 2 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 43 yards. That single play is worth about 72% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 88% across his first 5 recorded games and 84% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 122 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR vs JAX | 5/9 | 68 | 0 | 83% | 21 |
| 2 | CAR vs ARI | 6/10 | 100 | 0 | 85% | 40 |
| 3 | CAR vs ATL | 3/8 | 48 | 0 | 90% | 23 |
| 4 | CAR vs NE | 4/8 | 62 | 0 | 94% | 22 |
| 5 | CAR vs MIA | 6/8 | 73 | 0 | 90% | 29 |
| 6 | CAR vs DAL | 3/5 | 29 | 2 | 93% | 19 |
| 7 | CAR vs NYJ | 3/5 | 33 | 0 | 87% | 11 |
| 8 | CAR vs BUF | 7/10 | 99 | 0 | 93% | 19 |
| 9 | CAR vs GB | 4/6 | 46 | 0 | 84% | 16 |
| 10 | CAR vs NO | 5/8 | 60 | 0 | 91% | 26 |
| 11 | CAR vs ATL | 8/12 | 130 | 2 | 86% | 39 |
| 12 | CAR vs SF | 2/7 | 35 | 1 | 91% | 29 |
| 13 | CAR vs LA | 1/2 | 43 | 1 | 73% | 43 |
| 15 | CAR vs NO | 2/4 | 25 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | CAR vs TB | 6/10 | 73 | 1 | 87% | 22 |
| 17 | CAR vs SEA | 1/4 | 5 | 0 | 83% | 5 |
| 18 | CAR vs TB | 4/6 | 85 | 0 | 88% | 40 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | 122 | 1,014 | 59.6 | 7 | 14.6 |
CAREER VS CHI
No career game against CHI on record in the 2022-2025 seasons WinForge stores. There is no head-to-head sample to lean on here, which is itself worth knowing.
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Tetairoa McMillan is tagged as WR1 for CAR. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with CHI ranked #21 vs WR and allowing 27.6 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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