Week 1 NFL player projection
Caleb Williams
PROJECTION
Caleb Williams is a CHI QB facing CAR in Week 1. He averaged 232 passing yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 154 to 330. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
226
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1
Passing TDs
CHI vs CAR · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Caleb Williams has been consistent rather than trending. 231.9 passing yards per game in 2025, compared with 208.3 in 2024 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 225.5 projection, he cleared it in 8 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 239.5 passing yards per game early, then 225.1 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
231.9
Passing Yards / game
8/17
games clearing this projection
2
targets
99%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (220). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (225.5). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 330 passing yards in Week 17 against SF; the quietest was 154 in Week 13 against PHI. He finished above his own 232-per-game average in 8 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 14 of 17 games, and more than one in 12 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 65 yards. That single play is worth about 28% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 97% across his first 5 recorded games and 100% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
He also carried the ball 77 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI vs MIN | 0/0 | 210 | 2 | 100% | 31 |
| 2 | CHI vs DET | 0/0 | 207 | 2 | 84% | 37 |
| 3 | CHI vs DAL | 0/0 | 298 | 4 | 100% | 65 |
| 4 | CHI vs LV | 0/0 | 212 | 1 | 100% | 29 |
| 6 | CHI vs WAS | 0/0 | 252 | 2 | 100% | 55 |
| 7 | CHI vs NO | 0/0 | 172 | 0 | 100% | 26 |
| 8 | CHI vs BAL | 0/0 | 285 | 0 | 100% | 42 |
| 9 | CHI vs CIN | 2/2 | 280 | 4 | 100% | 58 |
| 10 | CHI vs NYG | 0/0 | 220 | 2 | 100% | 29 |
| 11 | CHI vs MIN | 0/0 | 193 | 0 | 100% | 24 |
| 12 | CHI vs PIT | 0/0 | 239 | 3 | 100% | 25 |
| 13 | CHI vs PHI | 0/0 | 154 | 1 | 100% | 28 |
| 14 | CHI vs GB | 0/0 | 186 | 2 | 100% | 27 |
| 15 | CHI vs CLE | 0/0 | 242 | 2 | -- | -- |
| 16 | CHI vs GB | 0/0 | 250 | 2 | 100% | 46 |
| 17 | CHI vs SF | 0/0 | 330 | 2 | 100% | 36 |
| 18 | CHI vs DET | 0/0 | 212 | 2 | 100% | 27 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | 0 | 3,541 | 208.3 | 20 | 17.3 |
| 2025 | 17 | 2 | 3,942 | 231.9 | 31 | 21.9 |
CAREER VS CAR
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 5 | CHI | 0/0 | 304 | 2 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Caleb Williams is tagged as starter for CHI. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with CAR ranked #9 vs QB and allowing 10.3 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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