Week 1 NFL player projection
Scotty Miller
PROJECTION
Scotty Miller is a CHI WR facing CAR in Week 1. He averaged 12 receiving yards across 5 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 25. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
47
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
3.8
Receptions
CHI vs CAR · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Scotty Miller has been consistent rather than trending. 17.9 receiving yards per game in 2023, compared with 16.8 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 47 projection, he cleared it in 0 of 5 games last season.
Split his 5 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 4.5 receiving yards per game early, then 17.7 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
12.4
Receiving Yards / game
0/5
games clearing this projection
14
targets
29%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (9). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (47). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 25 receiving yards in Week 17 against CLE; the quietest was 0 in Week 4 against MIN. He finished above his own 12-per-game average in 2 of 5 games.
He did not account for a touchdown in any of his 5 recorded 2025 games, so none of the projection above leans on touchdown equity.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 15 yards. That single play is worth about 121% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
Across those games he handled 14 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | PIT vs MIN | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 25% | -- |
| 7 | PIT vs CIN | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 14% | 9 |
| 16 | PIT vs DET | 3/3 | 19 | 0 | 20% | 9 |
| 17 | PIT vs CLE | 3/7 | 25 | 0 | 64% | 15 |
| 18 | PIT vs BAL | 2/2 | 9 | 0 | 21% | 5 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 11 | 40 | 185 | 16.8 | 0 | 4.9 |
| 2023 | 9 | 16 | 161 | 17.9 | 2 | 5 |
| 2024 | 4 | 9 | 69 | 17.2 | 0 | 3.6 |
| 2025 | 5 | 14 | 62 | 12.4 | 0 | 3.9 |
CAREER VS CAR
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Wk 7 | TB | 2/2 | 6 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Scotty Miller is tagged as WR4 rotation for CHI. The page uses top-4 WR projection volume for CHI, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with CAR ranked #5 vs WR and allowing 14.6 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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