Week 1 NFL player projection
Amon-Ra St. Brown
PROJECTION
Amon-Ra St. Brown is a DET WR facing NO in Week 1. He averaged 82 receiving yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 164. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
80
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
7.1
Receptions
DET vs NO · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been consistent rather than trending. 82.4 receiving yards per game in 2025, compared with 72.6 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 80.4 projection, he cleared it in 8 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 79.4 receiving yards per game early, then 85.1 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
82.4
Receiving Yards / game
8/17
games clearing this projection
172
targets
85%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (77). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (80.4). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 164 receiving yards in Week 15 against LA; the quietest was 0 in Week 13 against GB. He finished above his own 82-per-game average in 8 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 7 of 17 games, and more than one in 3 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 37 yards. That single play is worth about 45% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 87% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 75% across his last 5 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 172 targets and 3 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET vs GB | 4/6 | 45 | 0 | 94% | 19 |
| 2 | DET vs CHI | 9/11 | 115 | 3 | 85% | 34 |
| 3 | DET vs BAL | 7/8 | 77 | 1 | 85% | 20 |
| 4 | DET vs CLE | 7/7 | 70 | 2 | 90% | 25 |
| 5 | DET vs CIN | 8/9 | 100 | 0 | 81% | 26 |
| 6 | DET vs KC | 9/10 | 45 | 0 | 89% | 12 |
| 7 | DET vs TB | 6/10 | 86 | 1 | 91% | 27 |
| 9 | DET vs MIN | 9/13 | 97 | 0 | 95% | 19 |
| 10 | DET vs WAS | 5/8 | 58 | 1 | 77% | 16 |
| 11 | DET vs PHI | 2/12 | 42 | 0 | 97% | 34 |
| 12 | DET vs NYG | 9/13 | 149 | 1 | 97% | 30 |
| 13 | DET vs GB | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | -- |
| 14 | DET vs DAL | 6/9 | 92 | 0 | 92% | 37 |
| 15 | DET vs LA | 13/18 | 164 | 2 | -- | -- |
| 16 | DET vs PIT | 4/9 | 54 | 0 | 97% | 24 |
| 17 | DET vs MIN | 8/13 | 68 | 0 | 83% | 23 |
| 18 | DET vs CHI | 11/15 | 139 | 0 | 95% | 30 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16 | 146 | 1,161 | 72.6 | 6 | 20 |
| 2023 | 16 | 164 | 1,515 | 94.7 | 10 | 24.5 |
| 2024 | 17 | 141 | 1,263 | 74.3 | 13 | 22.2 |
| 2025 | 17 | 172 | 1,401 | 82.4 | 11 | 22.1 |
CAREER VS NO
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Wk 13 | DET | 2/6 | 49 | 1 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Amon-Ra St. Brown is tagged as WR1 for DET. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with NO ranked #12 vs WR and allowing 22.7 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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