Week 1 NFL player projection
Jameson Williams
PROJECTION
Jameson Williams is a DET WR facing NO in Week 1. He averaged 66 receiving yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 144. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
68
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
5.7
Receptions
DET vs NO · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Jameson Williams is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 29.5 in 2023 to 65.7 in 2025 — up 123% — on 42 then 102 targets.
Measured against this week's 68.1 projection, he cleared it in 8 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 44.4 receiving yards per game early, then 84.7 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
65.7
Receiving Yards / game
8/17
games clearing this projection
102
targets
90%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (66). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (68.1). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 144 receiving yards in Week 13 against GB; the quietest was 0 in Week 12 against NYG. He finished above his own 66-per-game average in 10 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 7 of 17 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 64 yards. That single play is worth about 97% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 89% across his first 5 recorded games and 92% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 102 targets and 6 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET vs GB | 4/5 | 23 | 0 | 97% | 11 |
| 2 | DET vs CHI | 2/4 | 108 | 1 | 88% | 64 |
| 3 | DET vs BAL | 2/3 | 43 | 0 | 91% | 24 |
| 4 | DET vs CLE | 2/8 | 40 | 0 | 85% | 27 |
| 5 | DET vs CIN | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 82% | 9 |
| 6 | DET vs KC | 6/7 | 66 | 1 | 85% | 22 |
| 7 | DET vs TB | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 85% | -- |
| 9 | DET vs MIN | 4/6 | 66 | 1 | 91% | 37 |
| 10 | DET vs WAS | 6/7 | 119 | 1 | 87% | 41 |
| 11 | DET vs PHI | 4/7 | 88 | 1 | 95% | 40 |
| 12 | DET vs NYG | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | 97% | -- |
| 13 | DET vs GB | 7/10 | 144 | 1 | 94% | 44 |
| 14 | DET vs DAL | 7/9 | 96 | 0 | 92% | 29 |
| 15 | DET vs LA | 7/10 | 134 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 16 | DET vs PIT | 5/9 | 70 | 0 | 95% | 21 |
| 17 | DET vs MIN | 2/3 | 37 | 0 | 83% | 22 |
| 18 | DET vs CHI | 6/8 | 74 | 0 | 95% | 23 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6 | 9 | 41 | 6.8 | 1 | 2.6 |
| 2023 | 12 | 42 | 354 | 29.5 | 3 | 7.7 |
| 2024 | 15 | 91 | 1,001 | 66.7 | 8 | 16.1 |
| 2025 | 17 | 102 | 1,117 | 65.7 | 7 | 14.6 |
CAREER VS NO
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Wk 13 | DET | 1/1 | 11 | 1 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Jameson Williams is tagged as WR2 rotation for DET. The page uses top-2 WR projection volume for DET, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with NO ranked #12 vs WR and allowing 22.7 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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