Week 1 NFL player projection
Greg Dortch
PROJECTION
Greg Dortch is a DET WR facing NO in Week 1. He averaged 17 receiving yards across 12 recorded 2025 games, in a range from -2 to 66. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
WHERE GREG DORTCH IS TRENDING
The trend on Greg Dortch points down, and the projection has to be read against that first. Per game he has fallen from 42.5 in 2022 to 17.2 in 2025 — down 60%.
Availability is part of the story: 12 games on record in 2025, best of 66 in Week 11, worst of -2.
Measured against this week's 50.7 projection, he cleared it in 2 of 12 games last season.
Split his 12 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 11.3 receiving yards per game early, then 23 late.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
51
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
4.3
Receptions
DET vs NO · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
17.2
Receiving Yards / game
2/12
games clearing this projection
33
targets
34%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (10). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (50.7). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 66 receiving yards in Week 11 against SF; the quietest was -2 in Week 1 against NO. He finished above his own 17-per-game average in 3 of 12 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 4 of 12 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 39 yards. That single play is worth about 227% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 30% of snaps across his first 4 recorded games, then 50% across his last 4 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 33 targets and 7 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI vs NO | 1/1 | -2 | 0 | 15% | -- |
| 2 | ARI vs CAR | 1/1 | 11 | 0 | 18% | 11 |
| 3 | ARI vs SF | 2/2 | 3 | 0 | 24% | 5 |
| 4 | ARI vs SEA | 4/5 | 35 | 0 | 64% | 15 |
| 5 | ARI vs TEN | 2/2 | 12 | 0 | 7% | 8 |
| 6 | ARI vs IND | 3/3 | 9 | 1 | 44% | 12 |
| 7 | ARI vs GB | 2/2 | 5 | 0 | 9% | 5 |
| 9 | ARI vs DAL | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 21% | 9 |
| 10 | ARI vs SEA | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 39% | 4 |
| 11 | ARI vs SF | 6/6 | 66 | 1 | 66% | 17 |
| 12 | ARI vs JAX | 6/9 | 53 | 1 | 63% | 39 |
| 13 | ARI vs TB | 2/2 | 14 | 0 | 33% | 11 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 11 | 64 | 467 | 42.5 | 2 | 12.8 |
| 2023 | 9 | 41 | 280 | 31.1 | 2 | 8.5 |
| 2024 | 17 | 50 | 342 | 20.1 | 3 | 6.5 |
| 2025 | 12 | 33 | 206 | 17.2 | 4 | 7.5 |
CAREER VS NO
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 1 | ARI | 1/1 | -2 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 7 | ARI | 1/1 | 5 | 1 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Greg Dortch is tagged as WR3 rotation for DET. The page uses top-3 WR projection volume for DET, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with NO ranked #12 vs WR and allowing 22.7 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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