Week 1 NFL player projection
C.J. Stroud
PROJECTION
C.J. Stroud is a HOU QB facing BUF in Week 1. He averaged 217 passing yards across 14 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 79 to 318. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
WHERE C.J. STROUD IS TRENDING
The trend on C.J. Stroud points down, and the projection has to be read against that first. Per game he has fallen from 273.9 in 2023 to 217.2 in 2025 — down 21%.
Availability is part of the story: 14 games on record in 2025, best of 318 in Week 8, worst of 79.
Measured against this week's 230.7 projection, he cleared it in 6 of 14 games last season.
Split his 14 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 231.9 passing yards per game early, then 202.6 late.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
231
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1
Passing TDs
HOU vs BUF · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
217.2
Passing Yards / game
6/14
games clearing this projection
20
touchdowns
91%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (218). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (230.7). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 318 passing yards in Week 8 against SF; the quietest was 79 in Week 9 against DEN. He finished above his own 217-per-game average in 7 of 14 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 11 of 14 games, and more than one in 6 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 75 yards. That single play is worth about 35% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 100% of snaps across his first 4 recorded games, then 91% across his last 4 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
He also carried the ball 48 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU vs LA | 0/0 | 188 | 0 | 100% | 23 |
| 2 | HOU vs TB | 0/0 | 207 | 1 | 100% | 37 |
| 3 | HOU vs JAX | 0/0 | 204 | 1 | 100% | 50 |
| 4 | HOU vs TEN | 0/0 | 233 | 2 | 100% | 37 |
| 5 | HOU vs BAL | 0/0 | 244 | 4 | 80% | 47 |
| 7 | HOU vs SEA | 0/0 | 229 | 1 | 100% | 29 |
| 8 | HOU vs SF | 0/0 | 318 | 2 | 100% | 50 |
| 9 | HOU vs DEN | 0/0 | 79 | 0 | 32% | 47 |
| 13 | HOU vs IND | 0/0 | 276 | 0 | 100% | 29 |
| 14 | HOU vs KC | 0/0 | 203 | 1 | 100% | 53 |
| 15 | HOU vs ARI | 0/0 | 260 | 3 | -- | -- |
| 16 | HOU vs LV | 0/0 | 187 | 1 | 100% | 24 |
| 17 | HOU vs LAC | 0/0 | 244 | 2 | 100% | 75 |
| 18 | HOU vs IND | 0/0 | 169 | 2 | 65% | 33 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 15 | 1 | 4,108 | 273.9 | 26 | 21.6 |
| 2024 | 17 | 1 | 3,727 | 219.2 | 20 | 15.6 |
| 2025 | 14 | 0 | 3,041 | 217.2 | 20 | 17.6 |
CAREER VS BUF
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 5 | HOU | 0/0 | 331 | 1 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
C.J. Stroud is tagged as starter for HOU. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with BUF ranked #29 vs QB and allowing 29.4 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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