Week 1 NFL player projection
Jayden Higgins
PROJECTION
Jayden Higgins is a HOU WR facing BUF in Week 1. He averaged 31 receiving yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 88. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
54
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
4
Receptions
HOU vs BUF · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
The record on Jayden Higgins is short: 17 games in 2025 for 525 receiving yards. That is too small a sample to call a trend, so the projection leans on role and matchup rather than his own history.
Measured against this week's 54.4 projection, he cleared it in 3 of 17 games last season.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
30.9
Receiving Yards / game
3/17
games clearing this projection
68
targets
56%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (32). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (54.4). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 88 receiving yards in Week 17 against LAC; the quietest was 0 in Week 7 against SEA. He finished above his own 31-per-game average in 9 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 6 of 17 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 75 yards. That single play is worth about 243% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 46% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 60% across his last 5 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 68 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU vs LA | 2/3 | 32 | 0 | 43% | 23 |
| 2 | HOU vs TB | 1/1 | 28 | 0 | 43% | 28 |
| 3 | HOU vs JAX | 1/1 | 5 | 0 | 44% | 5 |
| 4 | HOU vs TEN | 1/1 | 24 | 1 | 44% | 24 |
| 5 | HOU vs BAL | 4/4 | 32 | 0 | 56% | 14 |
| 7 | HOU vs SEA | 0/3 | 0 | 0 | 63% | -- |
| 8 | HOU vs SF | 4/8 | 34 | 1 | 82% | 12 |
| 9 | HOU vs DEN | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | 48% | 4 |
| 10 | HOU vs JAX | 5/7 | 42 | 1 | 57% | 12 |
| 11 | HOU vs TEN | 4/7 | 55 | 0 | 61% | 23 |
| 12 | HOU vs BUF | 4/9 | 38 | 1 | 58% | 16 |
| 13 | HOU vs IND | 5/5 | 65 | 0 | 58% | 19 |
| 14 | HOU vs KC | 3/5 | 34 | 0 | 60% | 17 |
| 15 | HOU vs ARI | 1/1 | 4 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | HOU vs LV | 1/3 | 17 | 0 | 54% | 17 |
| 17 | HOU vs LAC | 2/4 | 88 | 1 | 49% | 75 |
| 18 | HOU vs IND | 2/5 | 23 | 1 | 81% | 12 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | 68 | 525 | 30.9 | 6 | 8.8 |
CAREER VS BUF
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 12 | HOU | 4/9 | 38 | 1 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Jayden Higgins is tagged as WR3 rotation for HOU. The page uses top-3 WR projection volume for HOU, then layers in a softer prior matchup with BUF ranked #30 vs WR and allowing 36.3 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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