Week 1 NFL player projection
Daniel Jones
PROJECTION
Daniel Jones is a IND QB facing BAL in Week 1. He averaged 239 passing yards across 13 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 60 to 342. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
223
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1
Passing TDs
IND vs BAL · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Daniel Jones has been consistent rather than trending. 238.5 passing yards per game in 2025, compared with 200.3 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 223.4 projection, he cleared it in 8 of 13 games last season.
Split his 13 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 250.3 passing yards per game early, then 228.4 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
238.5
Passing Yards / game
8/13
games clearing this projection
24
touchdowns
92%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (255). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (223.4). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 342 passing yards in Week 9 against PIT; the quietest was 60 in Week 14 against JAX. He finished above his own 239-per-game average in 7 of 13 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 12 of 13 games, and more than one in 9 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 75 yards. That single play is worth about 31% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 97% of snaps across his first 4 recorded games, then 81% across his last 4 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
He also carried the ball 45 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND vs MIA | 0/0 | 272 | 3 | 100% | 36 |
| 2 | IND vs DEN | 0/0 | 316 | 2 | 100% | 44 |
| 3 | IND vs TEN | 0/0 | 228 | 1 | 88% | 29 |
| 4 | IND vs LA | 0/0 | 262 | 1 | 100% | 75 |
| 5 | IND vs LV | 0/0 | 212 | 2 | 89% | 35 |
| 6 | IND vs ARI | 0/0 | 212 | 3 | 100% | 26 |
| 7 | IND vs LAC | 0/0 | 288 | 2 | 100% | 48 |
| 8 | IND vs TEN | 0/0 | 272 | 3 | 89% | 50 |
| 9 | IND vs PIT | 0/0 | 342 | 2 | 100% | 36 |
| 10 | IND vs ATL | 0/0 | 255 | 1 | 100% | 37 |
| 12 | IND vs KC | 0/0 | 181 | 2 | 100% | 48 |
| 13 | IND vs HOU | 0/0 | 201 | 2 | 100% | 34 |
| 14 | IND vs JAX | 0/0 | 60 | 0 | 23% | 17 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16 | 0 | 3,205 | 200.3 | 22 | 19.9 |
| 2023 | 6 | 0 | 909 | 151.5 | 3 | 10.3 |
| 2024 | 10 | 0 | 2,070 | 207 | 10 | 15.3 |
| 2025 | 13 | 0 | 3,101 | 238.5 | 24 | 20.4 |
CAREER VS BAL
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Wk 6 | NYG | 0/0 | 173 | 2 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Daniel Jones is tagged as starter for IND. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with BAL ranked #22 vs QB and allowing 18.2 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
Browse every player projection · no-vig calculator · EV calculator