Week 1 NFL player projection
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
PROJECTION
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is a IND WR facing BAL in Week 1. He averaged 7 receiving yards across 13 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 22. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
WHERE NICK WESTBROOK-IKHINE IS TRENDING
The trend on Nick Westbrook-Ikhine points down, and the projection has to be read against that first. Per game he has fallen from 26.5 in 2022 to 6.8 in 2025 — down 74%.
Availability is part of the story: 13 games on record in 2025, best of 22 in Week 9, worst of 0.
Measured against this week's 48.7 projection, he cleared it in 0 of 13 games last season.
Split his 13 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 7 receiving yards per game early, then 6.7 late.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
49
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
3.8
Receptions
IND vs BAL · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
6.8
Receiving Yards / game
0/13
games clearing this projection
20
targets
44%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (1). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (48.7). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 22 receiving yards in Week 9 against BAL; the quietest was 0 in Week 18 against NE. He finished above his own 7-per-game average in 6 of 13 games.
He did not account for a touchdown in any of his 13 recorded 2025 games, so none of the projection above leans on touchdown equity.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 18 yards. That single play is worth about 263% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 36% of snaps across his first 4 recorded games, then 29% across his last 4 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 20 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA vs IND | 1/2 | 7 | 0 | 44% | 7 |
| 2 | MIA vs NE | 2/3 | 18 | 0 | 28% | 11 |
| 3 | MIA vs BUF | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 25% | -- |
| 4 | MIA vs NYJ | 1/1 | 1 | 0 | 47% | 1 |
| 6 | MIA vs LAC | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 63% | -- |
| 7 | MIA vs CLE | 3/4 | 16 | 0 | 76% | 11 |
| 8 | MIA vs ATL | 1/3 | 18 | 0 | 65% | 18 |
| 9 | MIA vs BAL | 2/4 | 22 | 0 | 67% | 17 |
| 10 | MIA vs BUF | 1/1 | 7 | 0 | 47% | 7 |
| 13 | MIA vs NO | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 22% | -- |
| 14 | MIA vs NYJ | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 34% | -- |
| 15 | MIA vs PIT | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 18 | MIA vs NE | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 11% | -- |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 15 | 50 | 397 | 26.5 | 3 | 6.3 |
| 2023 | 13 | 45 | 370 | 28.5 | 3 | 7.5 |
| 2024 | 13 | 60 | 497 | 38.2 | 9 | 11.7 |
| 2025 | 13 | 20 | 89 | 6.8 | 0 | 2 |
CAREER VS BAL
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 9 | MIA | 2/4 | 22 | 0 |
| 2023 | Wk 6 | TEN | 3/4 | 25 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is tagged as WR3 rotation for IND. The page uses top-3 WR projection volume for IND, then layers in a softer prior matchup with BAL ranked #29 vs WR and allowing 29.0 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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