Week 1 NFL player projection
Alec Pierce
PROJECTION
Alec Pierce is a IND WR facing BAL in Week 1. He averaged 67 receiving yards across 15 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 132. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
70
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
5
Receptions
IND vs BAL · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Alec Pierce is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 37.1 in 2022 to 66.9 in 2025 — up 80% — on 78 then 84 targets.
Measured against this week's 69.7 projection, he cleared it in 7 of 15 games last season.
Split his 15 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 71.6 receiving yards per game early, then 62.8 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
66.9
Receiving Yards / game
7/15
games clearing this projection
84
targets
85%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (69). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (69.7). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 132 receiving yards in Week 18 against HOU; the quietest was 0 in Week 17 against JAX. He finished above his own 67-per-game average in 10 of 15 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 4 of 15 games, and more than one in 2 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 66 yards. That single play is worth about 99% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 76% of snaps across his first 4 recorded games, then 85% across his last 4 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 84 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND vs MIA | 1/3 | 36 | 0 | 79% | 36 |
| 2 | IND vs DEN | 4/5 | 68 | 0 | 90% | 44 |
| 3 | IND vs TEN | 4/5 | 67 | 0 | 54% | 19 |
| 6 | IND vs ARI | 2/4 | 48 | 0 | 81% | 26 |
| 7 | IND vs LAC | 5/10 | 98 | 0 | 87% | 48 |
| 8 | IND vs TEN | 2/5 | 69 | 0 | 81% | 50 |
| 9 | IND vs PIT | 6/13 | 115 | 0 | 91% | 36 |
| 10 | IND vs ATL | 4/7 | 84 | 1 | 95% | 37 |
| 12 | IND vs KC | 1/2 | 26 | 0 | 96% | 26 |
| 13 | IND vs HOU | 4/5 | 78 | 1 | 96% | 22 |
| 14 | IND vs JAX | 5/8 | 80 | 0 | 83% | 29 |
| 15 | IND vs SEA | 1/1 | 16 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | IND vs SF | 4/4 | 86 | 2 | 97% | 33 |
| 17 | IND vs JAX | 0/5 | 0 | 0 | 91% | -- |
| 18 | IND vs HOU | 4/7 | 132 | 2 | 68% | 66 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16 | 78 | 593 | 37.1 | 2 | 8.3 |
| 2023 | 17 | 65 | 514 | 30.2 | 2 | 6.6 |
| 2024 | 16 | 69 | 824 | 51.5 | 7 | 11.2 |
| 2025 | 15 | 84 | 1,003 | 66.9 | 6 | 13.8 |
CAREER VS BAL
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Wk 3 | IND | 3/7 | 43 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Alec Pierce is tagged as WR1 for IND. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with BAL ranked #29 vs WR and allowing 29.0 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
Browse every player projection · no-vig calculator · EV calculator