Week 1 NFL player projection
Jalen Hurts
PROJECTION
Jalen Hurts is a PHI QB facing WAS in Week 1. He averaged 202 passing yards across 16 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 101 to 326. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
218
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1
Passing TDs
PHI vs WAS · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Jalen Hurts has been consistent rather than trending. 201.5 passing yards per game in 2025, compared with 246.7 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 218.4 projection, he cleared it in 7 of 16 games last season.
Split his 16 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 209.6 passing yards per game early, then 193.4 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
201.5
Passing Yards / game
7/16
games clearing this projection
33
touchdowns
99%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (184). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (218.4). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 326 passing yards in Week 7 against MIN; the quietest was 101 in Week 2 against KC. He finished above his own 202-per-game average in 7 of 16 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 15 of 16 games, and more than one in 11 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 79 yards. That single play is worth about 39% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 100% across his first 5 recorded games and 99% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
He also carried the ball 105 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI vs DAL | 0/0 | 152 | 2 | 100% | 51 |
| 2 | PHI vs KC | 0/0 | 101 | 1 | 100% | 28 |
| 3 | PHI vs LA | 0/0 | 226 | 4 | 100% | 38 |
| 4 | PHI vs TB | 0/0 | 130 | 2 | 100% | 29 |
| 5 | PHI vs DEN | 0/0 | 280 | 2 | 100% | 52 |
| 6 | PHI vs NYG | 0/0 | 283 | 2 | 100% | 36 |
| 7 | PHI vs MIN | 0/0 | 326 | 3 | 100% | 79 |
| 8 | PHI vs NYG | 0/0 | 179 | 4 | 93% | 40 |
| 10 | PHI vs GB | 0/0 | 183 | 1 | 100% | 41 |
| 11 | PHI vs DET | 0/0 | 135 | 1 | 100% | 34 |
| 12 | PHI vs DAL | 0/0 | 289 | 3 | 100% | 41 |
| 13 | PHI vs CHI | 0/0 | 230 | 2 | 100% | 33 |
| 14 | PHI vs LAC | 0/0 | 240 | 0 | 100% | 28 |
| 15 | PHI vs LV | 0/0 | 175 | 3 | -- | -- |
| 16 | PHI vs WAS | 0/0 | 185 | 2 | 94% | 24 |
| 17 | PHI vs BUF | 0/0 | 110 | 1 | 100% | 27 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 15 | 0 | 3,701 | 246.7 | 35 | 28 |
| 2023 | 17 | 0 | 3,858 | 226.9 | 38 | 24 |
| 2024 | 15 | 0 | 2,903 | 193.5 | 32 | 23.7 |
| 2025 | 16 | 0 | 3,224 | 201.5 | 33 | 22.1 |
CAREER VS WAS
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 16 | PHI | 0/0 | 185 | 2 |
| 2024 | Wk 16 | PHI | 0/0 | 11 | 0 |
| 2024 | Wk 11 | PHI | 0/0 | 221 | 1 |
| 2023 | Wk 8 | PHI | 0/0 | 319 | 4 |
| 2023 | Wk 4 | PHI | 0/0 | 319 | 2 |
| 2022 | Wk 10 | PHI | 0/0 | 175 | 3 |
| 2022 | Wk 3 | PHI | 0/0 | 340 | 3 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Jalen Hurts is tagged as starter for PHI. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with WAS ranked #29 vs QB and allowing 19.4 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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