Week 1 NFL player projection
Saquon Barkley
PROJECTION
Saquon Barkley is a PHI RB facing WAS in Week 1. He averaged 71 rushing yards across 16 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 22 to 150. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
66
Rushing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1.5
Receptions
PHI vs WAS · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Saquon Barkley has been consistent rather than trending. 71.2 rushing yards per game in 2025, compared with 82 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 65.5 projection, he cleared it in 7 of 16 games last season.
Split his 16 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 64.9 rushing yards per game early, then 77.6 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
71.2
Rushing Yards / game
7/16
games clearing this projection
50
targets
80%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (60). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (65.5). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 150 rushing yards in Week 8 against NYG; the quietest was 22 in Week 12 against DAL. He finished above his own 71-per-game average in 6 of 16 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 8 of 16 games, and more than one in 1 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 65 yards. That single play is worth about 91% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 82% across his first 5 recorded games and 83% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 50 targets and 280 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI vs DAL | 4/5 | 60 | 1 | 79% | 16 |
| 2 | PHI vs KC | 2/2 | 88 | 1 | 83% | 13 |
| 3 | PHI vs LA | 4/5 | 46 | 0 | 94% | 12 |
| 4 | PHI vs TB | 4/4 | 43 | 1 | 84% | 15 |
| 5 | PHI vs DEN | 3/3 | 30 | 1 | 72% | 47 |
| 6 | PHI vs NYG | 2/3 | 58 | 0 | 81% | 18 |
| 7 | PHI vs MIN | 1/1 | 44 | 0 | 78% | 9 |
| 8 | PHI vs NYG | 4/5 | 150 | 2 | 59% | 65 |
| 10 | PHI vs GB | 3/3 | 60 | 0 | 70% | 41 |
| 11 | PHI vs DET | 1/2 | 83 | 0 | 81% | 14 |
| 12 | PHI vs DAL | 7/8 | 22 | 0 | 83% | 16 |
| 13 | PHI vs CHI | 0/2 | 56 | 0 | 93% | 15 |
| 14 | PHI vs LAC | 0/2 | 122 | 1 | 82% | 52 |
| 15 | PHI vs LV | 2/3 | 78 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 16 | PHI vs WAS | 0/2 | 132 | 1 | 77% | 48 |
| 17 | PHI vs BUF | 0/0 | 68 | 0 | 80% | 16 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Rushing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16 | 76 | 1,312 | 82 | 10 | 19.4 |
| 2023 | 14 | 60 | 962 | 68.7 | 10 | 17.4 |
| 2024 | 16 | 43 | 2,005 | 125.3 | 15 | 22.9 |
| 2025 | 16 | 50 | 1,140 | 71.2 | 9 | 15.6 |
CAREER VS WAS
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 16 | PHI | 0/2 | 132 | 1 |
| 2024 | Wk 16 | PHI | 0/1 | 150 | 2 |
| 2024 | Wk 11 | PHI | 2/3 | 146 | 2 |
| 2023 | Wk 11 | NYG | 4/5 | 83 | 2 |
| 2023 | Wk 7 | NYG | 3/4 | 77 | 1 |
| 2022 | Wk 15 | NYG | 5/8 | 87 | 1 |
| 2022 | Wk 13 | NYG | 5/5 | 63 | 1 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Saquon Barkley is tagged as RB1 for PHI. The page uses team-leading RB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with WAS ranked #29 vs RB and allowing 23.7 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge rushing-yards model explained 42% of the variation in actual RB rushing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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