Week 1 NFL player projection
Dontayvion Wicks
PROJECTION
Dontayvion Wicks is a PHI WR facing WAS in Week 1. He averaged 26 receiving yards across 13 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 5 to 94. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
WHERE DONTAYVION WICKS IS TRENDING
The trend on Dontayvion Wicks points down, and the projection has to be read against that first. Per game he has fallen from 38.7 in 2023 to 25.5 in 2025 — down 34%.
Availability is part of the story: 13 games on record in 2025, best of 94 in Week 13, worst of 5.
Measured against this week's 50.9 projection, he cleared it in 1 of 13 games last season.
Split his 13 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 22.3 receiving yards per game early, then 28.3 late.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
51
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
3.9
Receptions
PHI vs WAS · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
25.5
Receiving Yards / game
1/13
games clearing this projection
46
targets
48%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (19). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (50.9). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 94 receiving yards in Week 13 against DET; the quietest was 5 in Week 7 against ARI. He finished above his own 26-per-game average in 5 of 13 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 1 of 13 games, and more than one every time he did. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 30 yards. That single play is worth about 117% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 61% of snaps across his first 4 recorded games, then 36% across his last 4 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 46 targets and 1 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB vs DET | 2/2 | 30 | 0 | 46% | 16 |
| 2 | GB vs WAS | 4/6 | 44 | 0 | 54% | 14 |
| 3 | GB vs CLE | 2/4 | 21 | 0 | 68% | 16 |
| 4 | GB vs DAL | 2/4 | 19 | 0 | 77% | 15 |
| 6 | GB vs CIN | 2/2 | 15 | 0 | 34% | 9 |
| 7 | GB vs ARI | 1/2 | 5 | 0 | 27% | 5 |
| 10 | GB vs PHI | 4/8 | 38 | 0 | 65% | 20 |
| 11 | GB vs NYG | 1/2 | 9 | 0 | 56% | 9 |
| 12 | GB vs MIN | 2/4 | 32 | 0 | 48% | 18 |
| 13 | GB vs DET | 6/7 | 94 | 2 | 49% | 30 |
| 15 | GB vs DEN | 1/2 | 6 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | GB vs CHI | 2/2 | 12 | 0 | 42% | 6 |
| 17 | GB vs BAL | 1/1 | 7 | 0 | 6% | 7 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 15 | 58 | 581 | 38.7 | 4 | 9.4 |
| 2024 | 17 | 76 | 415 | 24.4 | 5 | 7.6 |
| 2025 | 13 | 46 | 332 | 25.5 | 2 | 6.9 |
CAREER VS WAS
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 2 | GB | 4/6 | 44 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Dontayvion Wicks is tagged as WR4 rotation for PHI. The page uses top-4 WR projection volume for PHI, then layers in a softer prior matchup with WAS ranked #26 vs WR and allowing 28.3 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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