Week 1 NFL player projection
Jayden Daniels
PROJECTION
Jayden Daniels is a WAS QB facing PHI in Week 1. He averaged 180 passing yards across 7 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 78 to 233. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
195
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
0
Passing TDs
WAS vs PHI · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
The record on Jayden Daniels is short: 7 games in 2025 for 1,262 passing yards. That is too small a sample to call a trend, so the projection leans on role and matchup rather than his own history.
Measured against this week's 195 projection, he cleared it in 4 of 7 games last season.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
180.3
Passing Yards / game
4/7
games clearing this projection
10
touchdowns
90%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (200). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (195). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 233 passing yards in Week 1 against NYG; the quietest was 78 in Week 14 against MIN. He finished above his own 180-per-game average in 4 of 7 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 6 of 7 games, and more than one in 3 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 50 yards. That single play is worth about 28% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 100% of snaps across his first 2 recorded games, then 82% across his last 2 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
He also carried the ball 58 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS vs NYG | 0/0 | 233 | 1 | 100% | 34 |
| 2 | WAS vs GB | 0/0 | 200 | 2 | 100% | 20 |
| 5 | WAS vs LAC | 0/0 | 231 | 1 | 100% | 50 |
| 6 | WAS vs CHI | 0/0 | 211 | 3 | 100% | 37 |
| 7 | WAS vs DAL | 0/0 | 156 | 2 | 69% | 44 |
| 9 | WAS vs SEA | 0/0 | 153 | 1 | 88% | 25 |
| 14 | WAS vs MIN | 0/0 | 78 | 0 | 75% | 28 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 17 | 0 | 3,568 | 209.9 | 31 | 23.5 |
| 2025 | 7 | 0 | 1,262 | 180.3 | 10 | 18.6 |
CAREER VS PHI
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 16 | WAS | 0/0 | 258 | 5 |
| 2024 | Wk 11 | WAS | 0/0 | 191 | 1 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Jayden Daniels is tagged as starter for WAS. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with PHI ranked #10 vs QB and allowing 14.9 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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