Week 1 NFL player projection
Terry McLaurin
PROJECTION
Terry McLaurin is a WAS WR facing PHI in Week 1. He averaged 58 receiving yards across 10 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 27 to 96. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
60
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
4.5
Receptions
WAS vs PHI · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Terry McLaurin has been consistent rather than trending. 58.2 receiving yards per game in 2025, compared with 70.1 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 59.8 projection, he cleared it in 4 of 10 games last season.
Split his 10 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 59.8 receiving yards per game early, then 56.6 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
58.2
Receiving Yards / game
4/10
games clearing this projection
60
targets
70%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (55.5). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (59.8). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 96 receiving yards in Week 13 against DEN; the quietest was 27 in Week 1 against NYG. He finished above his own 58-per-game average in 4 of 10 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 3 of 10 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 56 yards. That single play is worth about 96% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 77% across his first 3 recorded games and 80% across his last 3. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 60 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WAS vs NYG | 2/4 | 27 | 0 | 79% | 14 |
| 2 | WAS vs GB | 5/9 | 48 | 0 | 91% | 14 |
| 3 | WAS vs LV | 3/4 | 74 | 0 | 60% | 56 |
| 8 | WAS vs KC | 3/4 | 54 | 1 | 47% | 25 |
| 13 | WAS vs DEN | 7/14 | 96 | 1 | 51% | 20 |
| 14 | WAS vs MIN | 3/6 | 41 | 0 | 62% | 28 |
| 15 | WAS vs NYG | 3/4 | 69 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 16 | WAS vs PHI | 3/4 | 53 | 0 | 83% | 40 |
| 17 | WAS vs DAL | 5/7 | 63 | 0 | 86% | 16 |
| 18 | WAS vs PHI | 4/4 | 57 | 0 | 70% | 25 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 120 | 1,191 | 70.1 | 5 | 15.7 |
| 2023 | 17 | 132 | 1,002 | 58.9 | 4 | 14.3 |
| 2024 | 17 | 117 | 1,096 | 64.5 | 13 | 18.2 |
| 2025 | 10 | 60 | 582 | 58.2 | 3 | 13.2 |
CAREER VS PHI
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 18 | WAS | 4/4 | 57 | 0 |
| 2025 | Wk 16 | WAS | 3/4 | 53 | 0 |
| 2024 | Wk 16 | WAS | 5/6 | 60 | 1 |
| 2024 | Wk 11 | WAS | 1/2 | 10 | 0 |
| 2023 | Wk 8 | WAS | 5/12 | 63 | 1 |
| 2023 | Wk 4 | WAS | 8/10 | 86 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 10 | WAS | 8/11 | 128 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 3 | WAS | 6/9 | 102 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Terry McLaurin is tagged as WR1 for WAS. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with PHI ranked #5 vs WR and allowing 20.9 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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