Week 1 NFL player projection
Kyler Murray
PROJECTION
Kyler Murray is a MIN QB facing GB in Week 1. He averaged 192 passing yards across 5 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 159 to 220. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
190
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
0
Passing TDs
MIN vs GB · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Kyler Murray has been consistent rather than trending. 226.5 passing yards per game in 2024, compared with 215.3 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 190.4 projection, he cleared it in 3 of 5 games last season.
Split his 5 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 191.5 passing yards per game early, then 193 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
192.4
Passing Yards / game
3/5
games clearing this projection
7
touchdowns
99%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (200). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (190.4). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 220 passing yards in Week 2 against CAR; the quietest was 159 in Week 3 against SF. He finished above his own 192-per-game average in 3 of 5 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 5 of 5 games, and more than one in 2 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 45 yards. That single play is worth about 23% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
He also carried the ball 29 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ARI vs NO | 0/0 | 163 | 2 | 100% | 45 |
| 2 | ARI vs CAR | 0/0 | 220 | 1 | 98% | 31 |
| 3 | ARI vs SF | 0/0 | 159 | 1 | 100% | 32 |
| 4 | ARI vs SEA | 0/0 | 200 | 2 | 100% | 29 |
| 5 | ARI vs TEN | 0/0 | 220 | 1 | 96% | 43 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 11 | 0 | 2,368 | 215.3 | 17 | 20.2 |
| 2023 | 8 | 0 | 1,799 | 224.9 | 13 | 20.6 |
| 2024 | 17 | 0 | 3,851 | 226.5 | 26 | 20.1 |
| 2025 | 5 | 0 | 962 | 192.4 | 7 | 18.2 |
CAREER VS GB
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 6 | ARI | 0/0 | 214 | 1 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Kyler Murray is tagged as starter for MIN. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with GB ranked #12 vs QB and allowing 15.2 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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