Week 1 NFL player projection
Aaron Jones Sr.
PROJECTION
Aaron Jones Sr. is a MIN RB facing GB in Week 1. He averaged 46 rushing yards across 12 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 3 to 85. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
WHERE AARON JONES SR. IS TRENDING
The trend on Aaron Jones Sr. points down, and the projection has to be read against that first. Per game he has fallen from 65.9 in 2022 to 45.7 in 2025 — down 31%.
Availability is part of the story: 12 games on record in 2025, best of 85 in Week 16, worst of 3.
Measured against this week's 55.9 projection, he cleared it in 4 of 12 games last season.
Split his 12 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 42.7 rushing yards per game early, then 48.7 late.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
56
Rushing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
2.2
Receptions
MIN vs GB · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
45.7
Rushing Yards / game
4/12
games clearing this projection
41
targets
55%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (44). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (55.9). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 85 rushing yards in Week 16 against NYG; the quietest was 3 in Week 13 against SEA. He finished above his own 46-per-game average in 6 of 12 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 3 of 12 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 31 yards. That single play is worth about 68% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 49% of snaps across his first 3 recorded games, then 58% across his last 3 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 41 targets and 132 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN vs CHI | 3/3 | 23 | 1 | 50% | 27 |
| 2 | MIN vs ATL | 0/1 | 23 | 0 | 43% | 8 |
| 8 | MIN vs LAC | 2/4 | 15 | 0 | 53% | 13 |
| 9 | MIN vs DET | 2/2 | 78 | 0 | 42% | 31 |
| 10 | MIN vs BAL | 3/6 | 47 | 1 | 71% | 17 |
| 11 | MIN vs CHI | 3/6 | 70 | 0 | 67% | 14 |
| 12 | MIN vs GB | 3/4 | 41 | 0 | 66% | 13 |
| 13 | MIN vs SEA | 4/4 | 3 | 0 | 37% | 13 |
| 14 | MIN vs WAS | 0/1 | 76 | 0 | 45% | 18 |
| 15 | MIN vs DAL | 3/3 | 34 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | MIN vs NYG | 2/3 | 85 | 0 | 64% | 15 |
| 17 | MIN vs DET | 3/4 | 53 | 1 | 65% | 10 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Rushing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 72 | 1,121 | 65.9 | 7 | 16.4 |
| 2023 | 11 | 43 | 656 | 59.6 | 3 | 13.7 |
| 2024 | 17 | 62 | 1,138 | 66.9 | 7 | 15.9 |
| 2025 | 12 | 41 | 548 | 45.7 | 3 | 11 |
CAREER VS GB
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 12 | MIN | 3/4 | 41 | 0 |
| 2024 | Wk 17 | MIN | 4/5 | 47 | 0 |
| 2024 | Wk 4 | MIN | 4/5 | 93 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Aaron Jones Sr. is tagged as RB1 for MIN. The page uses team-leading RB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with GB ranked #14 vs RB and allowing 19.2 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge rushing-yards model explained 42% of the variation in actual RB rushing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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