Week 1 NFL player projection
Justin Jefferson
PROJECTION
Justin Jefferson is a MIN WR facing GB in Week 1. He averaged 62 receiving yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 4 to 126. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
WHERE JUSTIN JEFFERSON IS TRENDING
The trend on Justin Jefferson points down, and the projection has to be read against that first. Per game he has fallen from 106.4 in 2022 to 61.6 in 2025 — down 42%.
Availability is part of the story: 17 games on record in 2025, best of 126 in Week 4, worst of 4.
Measured against this week's 68.9 projection, he cleared it in 8 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 81.1 receiving yards per game early, then 44.3 late.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
69
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
6
Receptions
MIN vs GB · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
61.6
Receiving Yards / game
8/17
games clearing this projection
141
targets
94%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (61). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (68.9). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 126 receiving yards in Week 4 against PIT; the quietest was 4 in Week 13 against SEA. He finished above his own 62-per-game average in 8 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 2 of 17 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 50 yards. That single play is worth about 81% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 96% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 89% across his last 5 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 141 targets and 2 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN vs CHI | 4/7 | 44 | 1 | 98% | 17 |
| 2 | MIN vs ATL | 3/6 | 81 | 0 | 100% | 50 |
| 3 | MIN vs CIN | 5/7 | 75 | 0 | 80% | 36 |
| 4 | MIN vs PIT | 10/11 | 126 | 0 | 100% | 29 |
| 5 | MIN vs CLE | 7/11 | 123 | 0 | 100% | 38 |
| 7 | MIN vs PHI | 5/10 | 79 | 0 | 99% | 40 |
| 8 | MIN vs LAC | 7/11 | 74 | 0 | 88% | 17 |
| 9 | MIN vs DET | 6/9 | 47 | 1 | 95% | 21 |
| 10 | MIN vs BAL | 4/12 | 37 | 0 | 100% | 11 |
| 11 | MIN vs CHI | 5/9 | 61 | 0 | 100% | 27 |
| 12 | MIN vs GB | 4/6 | 48 | 0 | 100% | 19 |
| 13 | MIN vs SEA | 2/6 | 4 | 0 | 96% | 8 |
| 14 | MIN vs WAS | 2/4 | 11 | 0 | 80% | 13 |
| 15 | MIN vs DAL | 2/8 | 22 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | MIN vs NYG | 6/8 | 85 | 0 | 95% | 21 |
| 17 | MIN vs DET | 4/5 | 30 | 0 | 98% | 10 |
| 18 | MIN vs GB | 8/11 | 101 | 0 | 76% | 18 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 184 | 1,809 | 106.4 | 9 | 25.3 |
| 2023 | 10 | 100 | 1,074 | 107.4 | 5 | 23.8 |
| 2024 | 17 | 154 | 1,533 | 90.2 | 10 | 21.7 |
| 2025 | 17 | 141 | 1,048 | 61.6 | 2 | 14.3 |
CAREER VS GB
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 18 | MIN | 8/11 | 101 | 0 |
| 2025 | Wk 12 | MIN | 4/6 | 48 | 0 |
| 2024 | Wk 17 | MIN | 8/11 | 92 | 0 |
| 2024 | Wk 4 | MIN | 6/8 | 85 | 1 |
| 2023 | Wk 17 | MIN | 5/10 | 59 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 17 | MIN | 1/5 | 15 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 1 | MIN | 9/11 | 184 | 2 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Justin Jefferson is tagged as WR1 for MIN. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with GB ranked #18 vs WR and allowing 25.4 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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