Week 1 NFL player projection
Patrick Mahomes
PROJECTION
Patrick Mahomes is a KC QB facing DEN in Week 1. He averaged 256 passing yards across 14 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 160 to 352. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
239
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1
Passing TDs
KC vs DEN · Mon, Sep 14 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Patrick Mahomes has been consistent rather than trending. 256.2 passing yards per game in 2025, compared with 308.8 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 238.8 projection, he cleared it in 10 of 14 games last season.
Split his 14 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 257.1 passing yards per game early, then 255.3 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
256.2
Passing Yards / game
10/14
games clearing this projection
1
targets
98%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (259.5). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (238.8). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 352 passing yards in Week 12 against IND; the quietest was 160 in Week 14 against HOU. He finished above his own 256-per-game average in 9 of 14 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 11 of 14 games, and more than one in 8 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 61 yards. That single play is worth about 24% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 98% across his first 4 recorded games and 100% across his last 4. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
He also carried the ball 64 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC vs LAC | 0/0 | 258 | 2 | 100% | 49 |
| 2 | KC vs PHI | 0/0 | 187 | 2 | 100% | 49 |
| 3 | KC vs NYG | 0/0 | 224 | 1 | 100% | 33 |
| 4 | KC vs BAL | 0/0 | 270 | 4 | 92% | 37 |
| 5 | KC vs JAX | 0/0 | 318 | 2 | 100% | 34 |
| 6 | KC vs DET | 0/0 | 257 | 4 | 100% | 30 |
| 7 | KC vs LV | 0/0 | 286 | 3 | 80% | 44 |
| 8 | KC vs WAS | 0/0 | 299 | 3 | 100% | 38 |
| 9 | KC vs BUF | 0/0 | 250 | 0 | 100% | 40 |
| 11 | KC vs DEN | 0/0 | 276 | 1 | 100% | 61 |
| 12 | KC vs IND | 0/0 | 352 | 0 | 100% | 47 |
| 13 | KC vs DAL | 0/0 | 261 | 4 | 100% | 42 |
| 14 | KC vs HOU | 1/1 | 160 | 0 | 100% | 35 |
| 15 | KC vs LAC | 0/0 | 189 | 1 | -- | -- |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 1 | 5,250 | 308.8 | 45 | 29.1 |
| 2023 | 16 | 0 | 4,183 | 261.4 | 27 | 21.1 |
| 2024 | 16 | 1 | 3,928 | 245.5 | 28 | 21 |
| 2025 | 14 | 1 | 3,587 | 256.2 | 27 | 23.3 |
CAREER VS DEN
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 11 | KC | 0/0 | 276 | 1 |
| 2024 | Wk 10 | KC | 0/0 | 266 | 1 |
| 2023 | Wk 8 | KC | 0/0 | 240 | 0 |
| 2023 | Wk 6 | KC | 0/0 | 306 | 1 |
| 2022 | Wk 17 | KC | 1/1 | 328 | 3 |
| 2022 | Wk 14 | KC | 0/0 | 352 | 3 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Patrick Mahomes is tagged as starter for KC. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with DEN ranked #4 vs QB and allowing 14.3 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
Browse every player projection · no-vig calculator · EV calculator