Week 1 NFL player projection
Tyquan Thornton
PROJECTION
Tyquan Thornton is a KC WR facing DEN in Week 1. He averaged 37 receiving yards across 12 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 90. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
51
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
4.2
Receptions
KC vs DEN · Mon, Sep 14 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Tyquan Thornton is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 20.6 in 2022 to 36.5 in 2025 — up 77% — on 45 then 37 targets.
Measured against this week's 50.5 projection, he cleared it in 4 of 12 games last season.
Split his 12 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 51.8 receiving yards per game early, then 21.2 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
36.5
Receiving Yards / game
4/12
games clearing this projection
37
targets
42%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (40). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (50.5). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 90 receiving yards in Week 5 against JAX; the quietest was 0 in Week 13 against DAL. He finished above his own 37-per-game average in 7 of 12 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 3 of 12 games, never more than one in a game. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 61 yards. That single play is worth about 167% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 74% of snaps across his first 3 recorded games, then 27% across his last 3 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 37 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC vs LAC | 2/4 | 41 | 0 | 72% | 38 |
| 2 | KC vs PHI | 2/5 | 59 | 1 | 75% | 49 |
| 3 | KC vs NYG | 5/9 | 71 | 1 | 76% | 33 |
| 4 | KC vs BAL | 1/2 | 11 | 1 | 34% | 11 |
| 5 | KC vs JAX | 3/5 | 90 | 0 | 45% | 34 |
| 7 | KC vs LV | 1/2 | 39 | 0 | 33% | 39 |
| 9 | KC vs BUF | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 23% | -- |
| 11 | KC vs DEN | 1/2 | 61 | 0 | 23% | 61 |
| 12 | KC vs IND | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 26% | -- |
| 13 | KC vs DAL | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 24% | -- |
| 14 | KC vs HOU | 2/3 | 19 | 0 | 30% | 12 |
| 15 | KC vs LAC | 2/3 | 47 | 0 | -- | -- |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12 | 45 | 247 | 20.6 | 3 | 6.4 |
| 2023 | 9 | 23 | 91 | 10.1 | 0 | 3.7 |
| 2024 | 4 | 8 | 47 | 11.8 | 0 | 2.7 |
| 2025 | 12 | 37 | 438 | 36.5 | 3 | 7.4 |
CAREER VS DEN
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 11 | KC | 1/2 | 61 | 0 |
| 2023 | Wk 16 | NE | 1/1 | 11 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Tyquan Thornton is tagged as WR3 rotation for KC. The page uses top-3 WR projection volume for KC, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with DEN ranked #1 vs WR and allowing 18.0 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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