Week 1 NFL player projection
Rashee Rice
PROJECTION
Rashee Rice is a KC WR facing DEN in Week 1. He averaged 71 receiving yards across 8 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 34 to 141. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
59
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
5.3
Receptions
KC vs DEN · Mon, Sep 14 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Rashee Rice is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 58.6 in 2023 to 71.4 in 2025 — up 22% — on 102 then 78 targets.
Measured against this week's 59.4 projection, he cleared it in 4 of 8 games last season.
Split his 8 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 63.2 receiving yards per game early, then 79.5 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
71.4
Receiving Yards / game
4/8
games clearing this projection
78
targets
73%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (65.5). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (59.4). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 141 receiving yards in Week 12 against IND; the quietest was 34 in Week 14 against HOU. He finished above his own 71-per-game average in 4 of 8 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 4 of 8 games, and more than one in 2 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 47 yards. That single play is worth about 66% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 64% of snaps across his first 2 recorded games, then 84% across his last 2 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 78 targets and 5 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | KC vs LV | 7/10 | 42 | 2 | 41% | 12 |
| 8 | KC vs WAS | 9/9 | 93 | 1 | 86% | 25 |
| 9 | KC vs BUF | 4/7 | 80 | 1 | 82% | 29 |
| 11 | KC vs DEN | 6/9 | 38 | 0 | 76% | 11 |
| 12 | KC vs IND | 8/12 | 141 | 0 | 62% | 47 |
| 13 | KC vs DAL | 8/12 | 92 | 2 | 89% | 28 |
| 14 | KC vs HOU | 4/8 | 34 | 0 | 78% | 15 |
| 15 | KC vs LAC | 7/11 | 51 | 0 | -- | -- |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 16 | 102 | 938 | 58.6 | 7 | 15.8 |
| 2024 | 3 | 29 | 288 | 96 | 2 | 25.6 |
| 2025 | 8 | 78 | 571 | 71.4 | 6 | 21.4 |
CAREER VS DEN
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Wk 11 | KC | 6/9 | 38 | 0 |
| 2023 | Wk 8 | KC | 4/5 | 56 | 0 |
| 2023 | Wk 6 | KC | 4/4 | 72 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Rashee Rice is tagged as WR1 for KC. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with DEN ranked #1 vs WR and allowing 18.0 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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