Week 1 NFL player projection
Tyler Shough
PROJECTION
Tyler Shough is a NO QB facing DET in Week 1. He averaged 217 passing yards across 11 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 333. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
239
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1
Passing TDs
NO vs DET · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
The record on Tyler Shough is short: 11 games in 2025 for 2,384 passing yards. That is too small a sample to call a trend, so the projection leans on role and matchup rather than his own history.
Measured against this week's 238.5 projection, he cleared it in 7 of 11 games last season.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
216.7
Passing Yards / game
7/11
games clearing this projection
13
touchdowns
82%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (243). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (238.5). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 333 passing yards in Week 17 against TEN; the quietest was 0 in Week 3 against SEA. He finished above his own 217-per-game average in 7 of 11 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 8 of 11 games, and more than one in 5 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 62 yards. That single play is worth about 29% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 49% of snaps across his first 3 recorded games, then 98% across his last 3 — a rising share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
He also carried the ball 45 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NO vs SEA | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -- |
| 8 | NO vs TB | 0/0 | 128 | 0 | 54% | 16 |
| 9 | NO vs LA | 0/0 | 176 | 1 | 90% | 27 |
| 10 | NO vs CAR | 0/0 | 282 | 2 | 82% | 62 |
| 12 | NO vs ATL | 0/0 | 243 | 0 | 95% | 18 |
| 13 | NO vs MIA | 0/0 | 239 | 2 | 99% | 17 |
| 14 | NO vs TB | 0/0 | 144 | 2 | 100% | 34 |
| 15 | NO vs CAR | 0/0 | 272 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 16 | NO vs NYJ | 0/0 | 308 | 1 | 97% | 31 |
| 17 | NO vs TEN | 0/0 | 333 | 2 | 98% | 60 |
| 18 | NO vs ATL | 0/0 | 259 | 2 | 100% | 29 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11 | 0 | 2,384 | 216.7 | 13 | 16.2 |
CAREER VS DET
No career game against DET on record in the 2022-2025 seasons WinForge stores. There is no head-to-head sample to lean on here, which is itself worth knowing.
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Tyler Shough is tagged as starter for NO. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with DET ranked #21 vs QB and allowing 18.1 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
Browse every player projection · no-vig calculator · EV calculator