Week 1 NFL player projection
Chris Olave
PROJECTION
Chris Olave is a NO WR facing DET in Week 1. He averaged 73 receiving yards across 16 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 20 to 148. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
67
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
6.8
Receptions
NO vs DET · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Chris Olave has been consistent rather than trending. 72.7 receiving yards per game in 2025, compared with 69.5 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 67.3 projection, he cleared it in 7 of 16 games last season.
Split his 16 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 62.9 receiving yards per game early, then 82.5 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
72.7
Receiving Yards / game
7/16
games clearing this projection
156
targets
84%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (61). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (67.3). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 148 receiving yards in Week 16 against NYJ; the quietest was 20 in Week 4 against BUF. He finished above his own 73-per-game average in 6 of 16 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 7 of 16 games, and more than one in 2 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 62 yards. That single play is worth about 85% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 86% across his first 5 recorded games and 86% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 156 targets and 1 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO vs ARI | 7/13 | 54 | 0 | 85% | 13 |
| 2 | NO vs SF | 6/10 | 54 | 0 | 100% | 14 |
| 3 | NO vs SEA | 10/14 | 57 | 0 | 85% | 9 |
| 4 | NO vs BUF | 3/6 | 20 | 1 | 85% | 10 |
| 5 | NO vs NYG | 7/11 | 59 | 0 | 73% | 17 |
| 6 | NO vs NE | 6/10 | 98 | 0 | 88% | 53 |
| 7 | NO vs CHI | 5/7 | 98 | 2 | 84% | 57 |
| 8 | NO vs TB | 8/12 | 63 | 0 | 93% | 28 |
| 9 | NO vs LA | 3/4 | 57 | 0 | 88% | 27 |
| 10 | NO vs CAR | 5/8 | 104 | 1 | 54% | 62 |
| 12 | NO vs ATL | 9/13 | 70 | 0 | 80% | 16 |
| 13 | NO vs MIA | 4/7 | 47 | 1 | 88% | 17 |
| 14 | NO vs TB | 3/5 | 30 | 0 | 93% | 12 |
| 15 | NO vs CAR | 6/9 | 85 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 16 | NO vs NYJ | 10/16 | 148 | 2 | 78% | 38 |
| 17 | NO vs TEN | 8/11 | 119 | 1 | 91% | 60 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 15 | 119 | 1,042 | 69.5 | 4 | 15.6 |
| 2023 | 16 | 138 | 1,123 | 70.2 | 5 | 17.1 |
| 2024 | 8 | 44 | 400 | 50 | 1 | 11.7 |
| 2025 | 16 | 156 | 1,163 | 72.7 | 9 | 19.7 |
CAREER VS DET
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Wk 13 | NO | 5/8 | 119 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Chris Olave is tagged as WR1 for NO. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a softer prior matchup with DET ranked #27 vs WR and allowing 30.5 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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