Week 1 NFL player projection
Travis Etienne Jr.
PROJECTION
Travis Etienne Jr. is a NO RB facing DET in Week 1. He averaged 65 rushing yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 27 to 143. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
50
Rushing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
2.4
Receptions
NO vs DET · Sun, Sep 13 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Travis Etienne Jr. has been consistent rather than trending. 65.1 rushing yards per game in 2025, compared with 66.2 in 2022 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 49.8 projection, he cleared it in 11 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 74.8 rushing yards per game early, then 56.6 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
65.1
Rushing Yards / game
11/17
games clearing this projection
52
targets
60%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (58). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (49.8). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 143 rushing yards in Week 1 against CAR; the quietest was 27 in Week 6 against SEA. He finished above his own 65-per-game average in 8 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 9 of 17 games, and more than one in 3 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 71 yards. That single play is worth about 109% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 60% across his first 5 recorded games and 63% across his last 5. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 52 targets and 260 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX vs CAR | 3/3 | 143 | 0 | 61% | 71 |
| 2 | JAX vs CIN | 2/3 | 71 | 1 | 66% | 30 |
| 3 | JAX vs HOU | 0/2 | 56 | 1 | 54% | 10 |
| 4 | JAX vs SF | 1/2 | 124 | 1 | 60% | 48 |
| 5 | JAX vs KC | 3/4 | 49 | 0 | 59% | 8 |
| 6 | JAX vs SEA | 4/5 | 27 | 0 | 62% | 9 |
| 7 | JAX vs LA | 1/3 | 44 | 0 | 55% | 13 |
| 9 | JAX vs LV | 5/5 | 84 | 0 | 57% | 20 |
| 10 | JAX vs HOU | 2/4 | 58 | 1 | 56% | 15 |
| 11 | JAX vs LAC | 0/2 | 73 | 2 | 49% | 13 |
| 12 | JAX vs ARI | 3/4 | 86 | 1 | 65% | 45 |
| 13 | JAX vs TEN | 1/1 | 28 | 0 | 49% | 13 |
| 14 | JAX vs IND | 1/1 | 74 | 2 | 72% | 28 |
| 15 | JAX vs NYJ | 3/4 | 32 | 3 | -- | -- |
| 16 | JAX vs DEN | 4/5 | 50 | 1 | 70% | 24 |
| 17 | JAX vs IND | 2/3 | 76 | 0 | 70% | 15 |
| 18 | JAX vs TEN | 1/1 | 32 | 0 | 56% | 11 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Rushing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 45 | 1,125 | 66.2 | 5 | 13.1 |
| 2023 | 17 | 73 | 1,008 | 59.3 | 12 | 18.1 |
| 2024 | 15 | 52 | 558 | 37.2 | 2 | 10 |
| 2025 | 17 | 52 | 1,107 | 65.1 | 13 | 15.9 |
CAREER VS DET
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 11 | JAX | 3/3 | 27 | 0 |
| 2022 | Wk 13 | JAX | 3/3 | 54 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Travis Etienne Jr. is tagged as RB1 for NO. The page uses team-leading RB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with DET ranked #4 vs RB and allowing 14.9 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge rushing-yards model explained 42% of the variation in actual RB rushing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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