Week 1 NFL player projection
A.J. Brown
PROJECTION
A.J. Brown is a NE WR facing SEA in Week 1. He averaged 67 receiving yards across 15 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 7 to 132. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
WHERE A.J. BROWN IS TRENDING
The trend on A.J. Brown points down, and the projection has to be read against that first. Per game he has fallen from 88 in 2022 to 66.9 in 2025 — down 24%.
Availability is part of the story: 15 games on record in 2025, best of 132 in Week 13, worst of 7.
Measured against this week's 76.3 projection, he cleared it in 7 of 15 games last season.
Split his 15 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 56.4 receiving yards per game early, then 76 late.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
76
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
6.6
Receptions
NE vs SEA · Wed, Sep 9 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
66.9
Receiving Yards / game
7/15
games clearing this projection
121
targets
92%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (68). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (76.3). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 132 receiving yards in Week 13 against CHI; the quietest was 7 in Week 4 against TB. He finished above his own 67-per-game average in 8 of 15 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 5 of 15 games, and more than one in 2 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 45 yards. That single play is worth about 67% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 93% across his first 4 recorded games and 92% across his last 4. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 121 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI vs DAL | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 87% | 8 |
| 2 | PHI vs KC | 5/8 | 27 | 0 | 97% | 8 |
| 3 | PHI vs LA | 6/10 | 109 | 1 | 93% | 38 |
| 4 | PHI vs TB | 2/9 | 7 | 0 | 96% | 9 |
| 5 | PHI vs DEN | 5/8 | 43 | 0 | 93% | 13 |
| 6 | PHI vs NYG | 6/9 | 80 | 0 | 96% | 30 |
| 7 | PHI vs MIN | 4/6 | 121 | 2 | 92% | 45 |
| 10 | PHI vs GB | 2/3 | 13 | 0 | 78% | 7 |
| 11 | PHI vs DET | 7/11 | 49 | 0 | 93% | 12 |
| 12 | PHI vs DAL | 8/10 | 110 | 1 | 94% | 22 |
| 13 | PHI vs CHI | 10/12 | 132 | 2 | 96% | 33 |
| 14 | PHI vs LAC | 6/13 | 100 | 0 | 97% | 26 |
| 15 | PHI vs LV | 2/2 | 41 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 16 | PHI vs WAS | 9/12 | 95 | 0 | 87% | 24 |
| 17 | PHI vs BUF | 5/7 | 68 | 0 | 89% | 27 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 145 | 1,496 | 88 | 11 | 20.3 |
| 2023 | 17 | 158 | 1,456 | 85.6 | 7 | 20.3 |
| 2024 | 13 | 97 | 1,079 | 83 | 7 | 19.3 |
| 2025 | 15 | 121 | 1,003 | 66.9 | 7 | 17.2 |
CAREER VS SEA
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Wk 15 | PHI | 5/10 | 56 | 0 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
A.J. Brown is tagged as WR1 for NE. The page uses team-leading WR projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with SEA ranked #3 vs WR and allowing 20.5 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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