Week 1 NFL player projection
Kayshon Boutte
PROJECTION
Kayshon Boutte is a NE WR facing SEA in Week 1. He averaged 39 receiving yards across 14 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 0 to 103. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
53
Receiving Yards
WinForge projection (median)
3.8
Receptions
NE vs SEA · Wed, Sep 9 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Kayshon Boutte has been consistent rather than trending. 39.4 receiving yards per game in 2025, compared with 39.3 in 2024 — a change of under 20% either way across the seasons WinForge stores.
Measured against this week's 53.3 projection, he cleared it in 4 of 14 games last season.
Split his 14 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 50.9 receiving yards per game early, then 27.9 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
39.4
Receiving Yards / game
4/14
games clearing this projection
46
targets
67%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (29). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (53.3). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 103 receiving yards in Week 1 against LV; the quietest was 0 in Week 9 against ATL. He finished above his own 39-per-game average in 5 of 14 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 5 of 14 games, and more than one in 1 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 39 yards. That single play is worth about 99% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 75% of snaps across his first 4 recorded games, then 68% across his last 4 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
Across those games he handled 46 targets and no carries on record.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Receiving Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE vs LV | 6/8 | 103 | 0 | 82% | 24 |
| 2 | NE vs MIA | 1/1 | 16 | 1 | 72% | 16 |
| 3 | NE vs PIT | 2/3 | 28 | 0 | 76% | 20 |
| 4 | NE vs CAR | 1/3 | 18 | 0 | 69% | 18 |
| 5 | NE vs BUF | 3/3 | 43 | 0 | 62% | 19 |
| 6 | NE vs NO | 5/5 | 93 | 2 | 67% | 29 |
| 7 | NE vs TEN | 2/2 | 55 | 1 | 71% | 39 |
| 8 | NE vs CLE | 3/5 | 75 | 1 | 74% | 39 |
| 9 | NE vs ATL | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 26% | -- |
| 12 | NE vs CIN | 2/2 | 15 | 0 | 80% | 9 |
| 13 | NE vs NYG | 4/5 | 35 | 1 | 75% | 13 |
| 15 | NE vs BUF | 1/1 | 30 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | NE vs BAL | 1/3 | 16 | 0 | 58% | 16 |
| 18 | NE vs MIA | 2/4 | 24 | 0 | 58% | 13 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Receiving Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 | 1.6 |
| 2024 | 15 | 68 | 589 | 39.3 | 3 | 9.4 |
| 2025 | 14 | 46 | 551 | 39.4 | 6 | 10 |
CAREER VS SEA
No career game against SEA on record in the 2022-2025 seasons WinForge stores. There is no head-to-head sample to lean on here, which is itself worth knowing.
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Kayshon Boutte is tagged as WR4 rotation for NE. The page uses top-4 WR projection volume for NE, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with SEA ranked #3 vs WR and allowing 20.5 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge receiving-yards model explained 59% of the variation in actual WR receiving yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
Browse every player projection · no-vig calculator · EV calculator