Week 1 NFL player projection
Drake Maye
PROJECTION
Drake Maye is a NE QB facing SEA in Week 1. He averaged 258 passing yards across 17 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 155 to 380. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
238
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1
Passing TDs
NE vs SEA · Wed, Sep 9 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Drake Maye is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 175.1 in 2024 to 258.5 in 2025 — up 48% — across 13 then 17 games.
Measured against this week's 237.7 projection, he cleared it in 12 of 17 games last season.
Split his 17 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 253.2 passing yards per game early, then 263.1 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
258.5
Passing Yards / game
12/17
games clearing this projection
1
targets
96%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (268). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (237.7). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 380 passing yards in Week 16 against BAL; the quietest was 155 in Week 15 against BUF. He finished above his own 258-per-game average in 11 of 17 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 16 of 17 games, and more than one in 12 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 72 yards. That single play is worth about 28% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His role moved during the season: roughly 98% of snaps across his first 5 recorded games, then 91% across his last 5 — a shrinking share. Role changes travel into the next season more reliably than yardage does.
He also carried the ball 103 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE vs LV | 1/1 | 287 | 1 | 100% | 27 |
| 2 | NE vs MIA | 0/0 | 230 | 3 | 100% | 55 |
| 3 | NE vs PIT | 0/0 | 268 | 2 | 100% | 23 |
| 4 | NE vs CAR | 0/0 | 203 | 3 | 88% | 33 |
| 5 | NE vs BUF | 0/0 | 273 | 0 | 100% | 32 |
| 6 | NE vs NO | 0/0 | 261 | 3 | 100% | 53 |
| 7 | NE vs TEN | 0/0 | 222 | 2 | 85% | 39 |
| 8 | NE vs CLE | 0/0 | 282 | 3 | 100% | 44 |
| 9 | NE vs ATL | 0/0 | 259 | 2 | 100% | 58 |
| 10 | NE vs TB | 0/0 | 270 | 2 | 100% | 72 |
| 11 | NE vs NYJ | 0/0 | 281 | 1 | 100% | 26 |
| 12 | NE vs CIN | 0/0 | 294 | 1 | 100% | 37 |
| 13 | NE vs NYG | 0/0 | 282 | 2 | 100% | 36 |
| 15 | NE vs BUF | 0/0 | 155 | 2 | -- | -- |
| 16 | NE vs BAL | 0/0 | 380 | 2 | 100% | 37 |
| 17 | NE vs NYJ | 0/0 | 256 | 5 | 79% | 31 |
| 18 | NE vs MIA | 0/0 | 191 | 1 | 76% | 35 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 13 | 0 | 2,276 | 175.1 | 17 | 16.1 |
| 2025 | 17 | 1 | 4,394 | 258.5 | 35 | 24.3 |
CAREER VS SEA
No career game against SEA on record in the 2022-2025 seasons WinForge stores. There is no head-to-head sample to lean on here, which is itself worth knowing.
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Drake Maye is tagged as starter for NE. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with SEA ranked #6 vs QB and allowing 14.1 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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