Week 1 NFL player projection
Rhamondre Stevenson
PROJECTION
Rhamondre Stevenson is a NE RB facing SEA in Week 1. He averaged 43 rushing yards across 14 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 5 to 131. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
WHERE RHAMONDRE STEVENSON IS TRENDING
The trend on Rhamondre Stevenson points down, and the projection has to be read against that first. Per game he has fallen from 61.2 in 2022 to 43.1 in 2025 — down 30%.
Availability is part of the story: 14 games on record in 2025, best of 131 in Week 18, worst of 5.
Measured against this week's 48.7 projection, he cleared it in 5 of 14 games last season.
Split his 14 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 35 rushing yards per game early, then 51.1 late.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
49
Rushing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
2.2
Receptions
NE vs SEA · Wed, Sep 9 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
43.1
Rushing Yards / game
5/14
games clearing this projection
37
targets
59%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (39). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (48.7). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 131 rushing yards in Week 18 against MIA; the quietest was 5 in Week 12 against CIN. He finished above his own 43-per-game average in 6 of 14 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 5 of 14 games, and more than one in 3 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 56 yards. That single play is worth about 130% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 56% across his first 4 recorded games and 59% across his last 4. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
Across those games he handled 37 targets and 130 carries.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE vs LV | 2/3 | 15 | 0 | 65% | 7 |
| 2 | NE vs MIA | 5/5 | 54 | 0 | 65% | 55 |
| 3 | NE vs PIT | 3/3 | 18 | 0 | 36% | 23 |
| 4 | NE vs CAR | 1/1 | 38 | 0 | 57% | 22 |
| 5 | NE vs BUF | 2/2 | 14 | 2 | 52% | 7 |
| 6 | NE vs NO | 0/1 | 18 | 0 | 72% | 7 |
| 7 | NE vs TEN | 2/2 | 88 | 1 | 75% | 16 |
| 8 | NE vs CLE | 1/2 | 34 | 0 | 74% | 15 |
| 12 | NE vs CIN | 1/2 | 5 | 0 | 31% | 5 |
| 13 | NE vs NYG | 3/3 | 40 | 0 | 58% | 36 |
| 15 | NE vs BUF | 3/3 | 50 | 0 | -- | -- |
| 16 | NE vs BAL | 2/3 | 51 | 1 | 84% | 23 |
| 17 | NE vs NYJ | 5/5 | 47 | 2 | 48% | 24 |
| 18 | NE vs MIA | 2/2 | 131 | 3 | 47% | 56 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Rushing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 17 | 88 | 1,040 | 61.2 | 6 | 16.7 |
| 2023 | 12 | 51 | 619 | 51.6 | 4 | 13.8 |
| 2024 | 15 | 41 | 801 | 53.4 | 8 | 12.8 |
| 2025 | 14 | 37 | 603 | 43.1 | 9 | 13.7 |
CAREER VS SEA
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Rushing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 2 | NE | 2/5 | 81 | 1 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Rhamondre Stevenson is tagged as RB1 for NE. The page uses team-leading RB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a tougher prior matchup with SEA ranked #2 vs RB and allowing 16.1 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge rushing-yards model explained 42% of the variation in actual RB rushing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
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