Week 1 NFL player projection
Brock Purdy
PROJECTION
Brock Purdy is a SF QB facing LA in Week 1. He averaged 241 passing yards across 9 recorded 2025 games, in a range from 127 to 309. Below: the WinForge median projection, then the record it has to be judged against.
MEDIAN PROJECTION
WinForge projection (median)
254
Passing Yards
WinForge projection (median)
1
Passing TDs
SF vs LA · Thu, Sep 10 · updated Jul 18, 2026. These weekly projections are prepared for Week 1. This is the median: half of the outcomes WinForge simulates land above it and half below.
WHAT THE RECORD SHOWS
Brock Purdy is on a clear upward line. Per game he went from 152.7 in 2022 to 240.8 in 2025 — up 58% — across 9 then 9 games.
Measured against this week's 254.1 projection, he cleared it in 5 of 9 games last season.
Split his 9 games down the middle and the two halves do not match: 244.8 passing yards per game early, then 237.6 late.
HOW HE ACTUALLY FINISHED IN 2025
240.8
Passing Yards / game
5/9
games clearing this projection
23
touchdowns
98%
avg snap share
White line = his actual median (277). Gold line = this week's WinForge projection (254.1). This bar is built from recorded results, not a modelled range.
THE SHAPE OF HIS 2025 SEASON
His 2025 weeks were not evenly spread. The best was 309 passing yards in Week 4 against JAX; the quietest was 127 in Week 18 against SEA. He finished above his own 241-per-game average in 5 of 9 games.
He accounted for at least one touchdown in 8 of 9 games, and more than one in 7 of them. Scoring is the most volatile part of any projection, so a record built on a handful of multi-score weeks reads differently from one spread evenly.
His longest single play on record in 2025 went for 45 yards. That single play is worth about 19% of an average game for him, which is the difference between a total built on steady volume and one that depends on a single play landing.
His snap share held roughly steady through the season: about 100% across his first 2 recorded games and 100% across his last 2. A stable role is the part of a projection least likely to be wrong.
He also carried the ball 33 times across those games, which matters for any projection that scores rushing separately from passing.
2025 GAME LOG
| Wk | Matchup | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD | Snap | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF vs SEA | 0/0 | 277 | 2 | 100% | 45 |
| 4 | SF vs JAX | 0/0 | 309 | 2 | 100% | 31 |
| 11 | SF vs ARI | 0/0 | 200 | 3 | 91% | 30 |
| 12 | SF vs CAR | 0/0 | 193 | 1 | 100% | 25 |
| 13 | SF vs CLE | 0/0 | 168 | 2 | 94% | 33 |
| 15 | SF vs TEN | 0/0 | 295 | 3 | -- | -- |
| 16 | SF vs IND | 0/0 | 295 | 5 | 95% | 26 |
| 17 | SF vs CHI | 0/0 | 303 | 5 | 100% | 38 |
| 18 | SF vs SEA | 0/0 | 127 | 0 | 100% | 20 |
SEASON BY SEASON
| Season | G | Tgt | Passing Yards | Per game | TD | PPR/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 9 | 0 | 1,374 | 152.7 | 14 | 14.7 |
| 2023 | 16 | 0 | 4,280 | 267.5 | 33 | 22.5 |
| 2024 | 15 | 0 | 3,864 | 257.6 | 25 | 20.7 |
| 2025 | 9 | 0 | 2,167 | 240.8 | 23 | 24.2 |
CAREER VS LA
| Season | Wk | Team | Rec/Tgt | Passing Yards | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Wk 15 | SF | 0/0 | 142 | 0 |
| 2024 | Wk 3 | SF | 0/0 | 292 | 3 |
| 2023 | Wk 2 | SF | 0/0 | 206 | 1 |
WHY THIS PROJECTION MOVES
Brock Purdy is tagged as starter for SF. The page uses team-leading QB projection volume in the current weekly board, then layers in a middle-tier prior matchup with LA ranked #14 vs QB and allowing 15.4 fantasy points per game so the public read is tied to this player's actual weekly situation.
ACCURACY FRAMING AND EVERY OTHER WEEK 1 PROJECTION
In the independent 2025 test using games kept out of training, the WinForge passing-yards model explained 45% of the variation in actual QB passing yards. The model-fit result shows how closely projections tracked real differences in results; it is not a hit rate. Read the accuracy ledger and methodology for context.
Browse every player projection · no-vig calculator · EV calculator